Asia Morning Briefing: Equities Rally on Rate-Cut Bets, Crypto Stays Cautious

Good Morning, Asia. Here's what's making news in the markets: Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during ￰0￱ and an overview of market moves and ￰1￱ a detailed overview of U. S. markets, see CoinDesk's Crypto Daybook ￰2￱ traders remain cautious ahead of Thursday’s ￰3￱ report, with BTC trading flat above $111,600, and ETH at $4,298.

The CD20 , a measure of the performance of the largest digital assets, is trading above 4,000, up 1.6%. The August Nonfarm Payrolls miss , just 22,000 jobs added versus expectations of 75,000, pushed futures higher and dragged 2-year Treasury yields to year-lows as markets priced in 72 bps of cuts this ￰4￱ crypto remains rangebound, diverging from broader risk ￰5￱ markets confirm the defensive ￰6￱ Capital noted in its recent Asia Market Update that risk reversals are increasingly skewed toward puts, with short-dated implied vols elevated into ￰7￱ data backs this positioning: ETH carries a 70% chance of staying above $4,600 this month but only 13% odds of breaking $5,600.

Traders are bracing for turbulence, not chasing ￰8￱ is the outlier , with odds of a new all-time high before 2026 rising sharply, signaling improving breadth beneath the ￰9￱ a note to CoinDesk, market maker Enflux argues that the SEC’s forward-looking rules for token sales and listings, combined with the steady march of institutions like Coinbase into major indices, show how deeply crypto is embedding into the ￰10￱ is the “split-screen reality” of 2025: speculation dominates headlines, while adoption rails are being laid in the ￰11￱ legitimacy narrative also played out in real time on ￰12￱ Saylor’s Strategy was left out of the S&P 500 despite meeting all criteria, while Robinhood was unexpectedly included instead, sending its stock up 7% and underscoring that crypto-adjacent firms with diversified business lines may reach blue-chip status faster than pure treasury plays.

WLFI’s turmoil illustrates the speculative side of the ￰13￱ protocol froze over 270 wallets, including Justin Sun’s, to “protect users” after phishing-related compromises. "On one side, speculative narratives like WLFI risk cannibalizing themselves through governance drama," Enflux wrote in its note. "On the other hand, institutional-grade infrastructure and regulation are solidifying at a pace that suggests the rails for mainstream adoption are being laid faster than most expect." Onchain data shows Sun’s transfers came hours after WLFI’s crash , which was instead driven by shorting and dumping across ￰14￱ the freeze rattled whales and market makers – shocked that the free market of crypto could be broken by protocol governance fiat – with insiders asking: “If they can do it to Sun, who’s next?”.

The takeaway: near-term volatility and governance drama may cap upside, but the deeper story is that crypto’s institutional and regulatory foundations are hardening. "Structural legitimacy, not speculation, remains the real story of 2025," Enflux ￰15￱ traders, that means bracing for CPI noise; for investors, it means the legitimacy story continues to ￰16￱ Movement: BTC: Bitcoin is holding steady above $111K, with support from consolidation near key resistance levels and solid on‑chain support ￰17￱ suggest this stability could pave the way for a breakout, though some caution about a possible pullback toward $100K exists ETH: Ethereum’s price has eased slightly intraday, trading around $4.3K.

This movement may reflect broader crypto market dynamics, including relatively subdued demand and positioning around current technical levels. Gold: Gold has surged to fresh record highs, recently hitting ~$3,636/oz, as expectations of ￰18￱ rate cuts rise amid weak labor data, a soft U. S. dollar, geopolitical concerns, and continued central bank ￰19￱ 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.9% to a record high and the Topix gained 0.52% as investors bet a new LDP leader could deliver fresh fiscal stimulus following Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation.

S&P 500: ￰20￱ edged higher Monday, with the S&P 500 up 0.2%, as investors awaited inflation data to gauge the likelihood of a jumbo Fed rate cut next ￰21￱ in Crypto Upbit Parent Files ‘GIWA’ Trademarks Amid Rumors of New Blockchain Launch ( CoinDesk ) How Trump Came Around to Crypto and What Crypto Wants in Return ( Bloomberg ) Kalshi’s $875 million in August trading volume, recent funding signal rising competition with Polymarket ( The Block )