Bitcoin’s next leg higher sits inside a broader “everything, everywhere, all at once” bull market that echoes the 1950s more than the 1990s—and the underlying engine is fiat debasement that will continue to funnel monetary premiums into neutral reserve assets such as Bitcoin and 0 is the core of veteran macro analyst and investor Mel Mattison’s thesis in a wide-ranging interview on Milk Road Macro published Monday, October 7. Mattison, a former fintech executive with 25+ years in finance, argues that investors are misreading the cycle by citing relationships from the 1970s and 1980s instead of the earlier regimes that rhyme more closely with today.
“I actually think the most similar decade is the 50s,” he said, noting that the S&P 500’s average annual return then “was over 19%,” outpacing the 1 described 2024–2025 as an “everything everywhere all at once rally… bonds, stocks, gold, Bitcoin, real estate,” driven by a multi-decade interest-rate cycle and a global “debasement trade” that has finally gone mainstream. “The scariest thing to me right now is that Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are saying the same thing that I was a year ago.” Bitcoin And Gold To Dominate The Debasement Era Within that framework, Bitcoin plays the role of digital gold—one of two “neutral reserve assets” poised, in Mattison’s view, to absorb more monetary premium as the fiat system adapts to rising debt loads and geopolitical 2 framed the moment as a “gold war, not a cold war,” pointing to the steady build-up of official gold reserves and alternative settlement 3 Reading: Bitcoin Will Not Crash: Jeff Park Rejects Paul Tudor Jones’ 1999 Comparison “People do not understand… this is just getting started,” he said of the bull market in both gold and 4 he sees gold as temporarily stretched near-term, he reiterated a long-horizon target in line with arguments from other macro commentators: “Do I think gold is going to $20,000 in the next 10 to 15 years?
Yes, absolutely.” Bitcoin, he suggested, shares in that secular bid as the programmable counterpart: “Bitcoin I see as digital gold and that’s being accepted.” Mattison’s supercycle call rests heavily on policy 5 contends that markets are underpricing the US Federal Reserve’s statutory mandate to maintain “moderate long-term interest rates,” alongside price stability and maximum employment. “Under the statute, the FOMC has three distinct mandates… unemployment, price stability, and making sure that long-term interest rates are moderate,” he said, criticizing the idea that the third leg is 6 practice, he expects this to pull policymakers toward yield-curve control (YCC)–style interventions if needed to cap long-tenor yields and stabilize debt service.
“There’s no way that they can let interest rates get out of hand,” he argued, adding that the Fed could halt quantitative tightening and significantly expand its balance sheet without necessarily reigniting 2021–2022-style inflation. “The Federal Reserve could… easily take its balance sheet to $20 trillion in the next decade without creating massive inflation,” he claimed, emphasizing that money-supply growth and velocity, not the level of public debt per se, drive sustained price 7 policy trajectory, in his telling, is inherently supportive of assets with monetary 8 dismissed recurring fears over foreign selling of Treasuries: “When people talk about… China or Japan selling, there’s no threat from that,” he said, arguing that domestic absorption—by banks, mutual funds, stablecoin balance sheets, or the Fed itself—can readily backstop 9 Reading: Bitcoin STH Whale Profits Hit $10.1 Billion, Highest For The Cycle He called interest payments “stimulus,” preferring they recycle to US holders rather than 10 this setting, he believes index-heavy exposure will underperform active positioning in the new winners: “To me the big alpha is… in gold and bitcoin,” with emerging markets also benefiting from easier global financial conditions if YCC or related measures anchor US 11 Can Go Much Higher For Longer Mattison’s historical lens also shapes his risk 12 likens the current mix of post-pandemic fiscal-monetary coordination and geopolitical fault lines to the period spanning World War II, the Marshall Plan, and the Korean 13 expects the rally to broaden beyond mega-cap tech as artificial intelligence redistributes value away from traditional SaaS moats, but he also flags a latent social-cohesion shock—an eventual phase when “not only do you want to reduce, you want to just get out of risk… even gold.” The timing, he said, is not imminent: “I honestly think that’s at least 12 to 24 months away at a minimum and possibly longer.” Until then, he urges investors not to underestimate how far markets—and Bitcoin—can run in a true bubble phase.
“If you’ve never lived through the late 1920s or late 1990s, you don’t understand what the markets can actually do,” he said. “In a bubble environment, which I think we’re heading into, it can go a lot higher and a lot quicker.” Why This Could Be the Biggest Bull Run Since the 1950s w/ @MelMattison1 Want to know how we survive $34T of U. S. debt?
Mel makes the contrarian case for why debt isn’t the problem… and why interest payments could actually stimulate the 14 in to know more ⏱ TIME… 15 — Milk Road Macro (@MilkRoadMacro) October 7, 2025 For Bitcoin specifically, the implication is straightforward in Mattison’s model: as long as the policy mix trends toward looser effective financial conditions to manage public debt and geopolitical competition channels settlement into neutral assets, BTC accrues monetary premium alongside 16 term he anticipates volatility—“very short term gold is due for… a rest,” he noted, implying risk for correlated trades—but the secular path, he insists, remains higher.
“I’m not saying this time is different,” he said. “I’m actually saying this time is like all the other times”—just not within the living memory of most 17 press time, BTC traded at $122,451. Featured image created with DALL. E, chart from 18
Story Tags
Latest news and analysis from NewsBTC
