VanEck Forecasts Bitcoin Could Capture Half of Gold’s $26 Trillion Market Cap; Analysts Say It May Take Years

VanEck projects Bitcoin could capture half of gold’s $26 trillion market capitalization, implying roughly $644,000 per Bitcoin if achieved; analysts say this outcome is plausible over multiple years given adoption, Layer‑2 scaling and institutional flows, not an immediate short‑term ￰0￱ projects Bitcoin could reach half of gold’s market cap: ~ $644,000 per ￰1￱ expect a multi‑year timeline driven by adoption, Layer‑2 growth and institutional ￰2￱ market cap: Bitcoin ≈ $2.48T; gold ≈ $26T—achieving 50% requires ~5.6x Bitcoin ￰3￱ capture half of gold’s market cap: discover the valuation, timeline, and research-backed assumptions — read the analysis and key takeaways ￰4￱ would Bitcoin be worth if it captured half of gold’s market capitalization?

Bitcoin capture half of gold’s market cap would equate to roughly $644,000 per BTC based on a $26 trillion gold market, according to ￰5￱ target assumes Bitcoin attains 50% of gold’s market value and depends on adoption, Layer‑2 scaling, and institutional allocation over years rather than ￰6￱ realistic is VanEck’s projection and what timeline do analysts expect? VanEck’s projection is grounded in assumptions about global adoption, payment settlement share, and central bank ￰7￱ participants such as Caladan and Merkle Tree Capital interpret the thesis as plausible but expect the path to unfold over 5–15 ￰8￱ view reflects the need for sustained capital flows and structural adoption rather than immediate exponential returns. , "keywords": "Bitcoin capture half of gold’s market cap, Bitcoin valuation, VanEck forecast" , Why do analysts caution about timing even if VanEck’s thesis holds?

Analysts note the math is straightforward but timing is ￰9￱ 50% of gold requires ~5.6x appreciation from current market ￰10￱ cycle behavior, halving timing and compressed volatility from institutional ETF flows all influence when — and if — that multiple is ￰11￱ are the key data points to watch now? Market capitalization : Bitcoin ≈ $2.48 trillion; gold ≈ $26 trillion (plain text sources: CoinGecko and market gold estimates). Price action : Bitcoin recent record high noted at $126,080, trading near $124,529 at ￰12￱ timing : Bitcoin halving occurred on April 20, 2024; historical peaks have clustered 500–550 days post‑halving. Market cap comparison snapshot Asset Estimated Market Cap Implied Price per BTC (50% of gold) Gold (total) $26,000,000,000,000 — 50% of Gold $13,000,000,000,000 $644,000 (approx.) Bitcoin (current) $2,480,000,000,000 — When might Bitcoin reach these levels?

Timing estimates ￰13￱ market researchers project material progress within 5–10 years; more aggressive scenarios extend to mid‑century if velocity and settlement usage expand as VanEck ￰14￱ caution that macro factors, monetary policy and geopolitics will influence the ￰15￱ Asked Questions How does the halving affect the price path? The halving reduces miner rewards and tightens issuance, historically precedes multi‑month appreciation phases. However, past cycles are imperfect guides; institutional participation and ETFs have shifted dynamics toward steadier, dollar‑based ￰16￱ role do Layer‑2 solutions play? Layer‑2 solutions reduce transaction costs, increase throughput and expand use ￰17￱ maturation is essential for Bitcoin to serve larger economic functions like cross‑border settlement, a key assumption in VanEck’s long‑term ￰18￱ Takeaways Valuation target : VanEck implies ~ $644,000 per BTC if Bitcoin captures half of gold’s $26T market ￰19￱ : Analysts view the path as multi‑year, likely 5–15 years rather than a single cycle ￰20￱ : Adoption in emerging markets, Layer‑2 scaling, institutional and sovereign allocations are central to the ￰21￱ The VanEck forecast that Bitcoin could capture half of gold’s market capitalization frames a long‑term, structural bull case built on adoption, Layer‑2 growth and institutional ￰22￱ the valuation math is compelling, market participants should treat timing as uncertain and monitor adoption, technical scaling and macro drivers closely.