Bitcoin Premium Bubble Has Burst — NYDIG Says The Signal Is Clear

NYDIG’s latest weekly digest, published September 5, 2025 and authored by Global Head of Research Greg Cipolaro, argues that the premium investors once paid for “Digital Asset Treasury” (DAT) companies has been deflating even as bitcoin printed a fresh all-time high in ￰0￱ are public companies whose core strategy is to hold bitcoin on the balance sheet; the premium (or discount) reflects the gap between a firm’s share price and its underlying net asset value (NAV) per bitcoin share. NYDIG’s takeaway: the once-frothy premium has compressed across the group, and that compression itself is emerging as a macro-signal for Bitcoin’s cycle rather than a company-specific ￰1￱ Treasury Companies Feel The Heat Cipolaro points to a confluence of drivers behind the premium squeeze: investor anxiety ahead of large supply unlocks; changing business objectives among DAT management teams; tangible increases in share issuance; profit-taking after strong runs; and limited differentiation across corporate treasury ￰2￱ dynamic is visible even at the largest bellwethers, where “premiums on Digital Asset Treasury companies … continue to compress,” despite bitcoin’s August ￰3￱ frames this as a structural reset rather than a blip of ￰4￱ supply calendar is front and ￰5￱ cautions that “for many DATs, conditions may deteriorate before they improve,” because numerous BTC-focused treasuries still need to complete mergers or finalize equity and debt financings to register shares for unrestricted ￰6￱ many cases, “over 95% of the new outstanding shares are tied to these transactions,” implying a potential wave of secondary supply once registrations go ￰7￱ prices into those unlocks weaken, the selling pressure could feed on ￰8￱ references from recent fundraises underscore the ￰9￱ notes that Twenty One ’s stock is trading below its June $21 PIPE (though above an April $10 PIPE), while Nakamoto trades below a $5 additional PIPE (but above its $1.12 PIPE).

ProCap /Columbus Capital sits just above its SPAC and preferred equity raise price, and Bitcoin Standard Treasury Co./Cantor Equity Partners is only marginally above its PIPE ￰10￱ beneath these anchor prices would not only pressure existing investors but could also magnify post-registration selling by new holders who are near or under ￰11￱ premiums keep compressing and discounts open up, the most direct remedy NYDIG highlights is corporate buybacks. Yet, among major bitcoin-treasury names, buyback authorizations are largely ￰12￱ Digital is the exception, trading at a roughly 24% discount to NAV with a program in ￰13￱ contrast, Nakamoto is leaning into equity issuance via a $5 billion at-the-market offering—an approach that, by definition, tends to lean on the premium rather than defend it.

NYDIG’s counsel is blunt: keep some cash back “to support shares via buybacks.” Beyond near-term market mechanics, NYDIG sketches what a next phase of maturation could look like: accretive M&A and even shareholder activism among ￰14￱ accretion is a function of relative premium, an acquirer trading at a higher NAV premium than a target can increase its bitcoin-per-share count through a stock deal even if the target is not at a ￰15￱ this logic takes hold, the consolidators will likely be firms that can sustain higher premiums and operate at sufficient scale to execute meaningful ￰16￱ Does This Mean For The Bitcoin Price? Crucially for bitcoin-cycle watchers, NYDIG revisits the one historical analogue available for this emerging signal: MicroStrategy’s premium to NAV peaked in February 2021, preceding bitcoin’s April 2021 intermediate high near $64,000 and well before the ultimate November 2021 top around $69,000.

In the current cycle, NYDIG observes that MicroStrategy’s premium topped out in November 2024—a timing detail that “may be telling us something about the current bitcoin cycle,” even if the firm stresses that one example does not make a rule. “There may be some cycle information being conveyed in DAT premiums, but the sample size is small.” NYDIG’s market-tape appendix underlines the transition ￰17￱ declined over the past weeks, while broader US equities were largely ￰18￱ metals, meanwhile, broke higher following Jackson Hole as falling nominal rates and sticky inflation expectations pushed real yields lower—macro conditions NYDIG argues should also favor BTC alongside gold and silver into September’s CPI print and the September 17 FOMC ￰19￱ research house stops short of making a hard-timing ￰20￱ the contours are clear: a once-buoyant premium regime for bitcoin treasuries is being wrung out by supply, issuance, and strategy convergence; management teams may need to pivot from opportunistic equity taps to defensive buybacks; and if history rhymes, the trajectory of MicroStrategy’s premium—peaking months ahead of bitcoin’s ultimate highs—may again be whispering where we are in the ￰21￱ NYDIG frames it, the “signal” embedded in DAT premiums is getting louder, even if the dataset is ￰22￱ press time, bitcoin traded at $111,373.