Bitcoin Could Crash 50%, Pushing MSTR ‘Underwater,’ Legendary Trader Warns

Veteran chartist Peter Brandt ignited a fresh technical debate on X after publishing two annotated charts—one of today’s Bitcoin daily bars, the other of Chicago Board of Trade soybeans from 1977—arguing that the cryptocurrency may be carving out a broadening top akin to the historical commodity pattern that preceded a 50% collapse. “In 1977 Soybeans formed a broadening top and then declined 50% in value,” Brandt wrote. “Bitcoin today is forming a similar pattern. A 50% decline in $BTC will put MSTR ￰0￱ I am right or wrong, you have to admit this old guy has the gonads to make big calls.” What This Means For Bitcoin Price Brandt’s side-by-side comparative overlay is central to his ￰1￱ soybean chart marks an “Ascending Megaphone” that resolved sharply lower, while his current Bitcoin chart shows an expanding range bounded by rising upper and lower trendlines with a highlighted “sell zone” near the mid-range around $114,800.

While the upper boundary sits just above $125,000, the lower trendline now tracks a descending band around $102,000–$100,000. Related Reading: CryptoQuant’s Moreno Eyes Bitcoin At $195,000 If This Happens The BTC panel also includes short-term moving averages (8-period and 18-period) and a modestly elevated ADX reading, capturing a market that has been volatile within a widening corridor rather than trending ￰2￱ Brandt’s rendering, recent bounces have stalled beneath a horizontal resistance band, consistent with the “sell zone” ￰3￱ post triggered immediate pushback from pattern specialists, most notably Francis Hunt (TheMarketSniper), who argued that the similarity is superficial because the direction of the megaphone matters.

“If you have #HVFmethod you would notice whilst the broadening structures look the ￰4￱ Soybeans was an Ascending Megaphone on a bull trend => ￰5￱ is a Descending structure on a bull trend, eventually => ￰6￱ a splitter between each for net gradient.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Price 60% Crash To $50,000 Coming? Why All Roads Point To A Decline Brandt, who has a long record of public calls across FX, commodities, and crypto, framed his view as a live hypothesis rather than a certainty, adding an important nuance a few hours later: “I am a Bayesian. I deal in possibilities, not probabilities and certainly not ￰7￱ any given time I have binary TA and macro narratives playing in my head — $250k Bitcoin or $60k Bitcoin.

I consider all possibilities and look for asymmetrical bets in either direction.” He also acknowledged the alternative read from Hunt: “I’ll be first to admit you could be right. I am willing to go with it in either ￰8￱ BTC goes up I want to be long, if it goes down I want to be short.” At the heart of Brandt’s warning is second-order exposure: Strategy (MSTR), the business-intelligence firm that has accumulated the world’s largest Bitcoin treasury, would, in his words, be “underwater” if BTC fell by half from current ￰9￱ firm’s average acquisition price is currently about $74,010 per BTC (inclusive of fees and expenses), based on the company’s latest disclosure this week putting total holdings at 640,418 BTC for roughly $47.4 ￰10￱ press time, BTC traded at $107,998.

Featured image created with DALL. E, chart from ￰11￱