When the State Moves Coins: Why Bitcoin’s Biggest ETF Is Soaring While Governments Quietly Reshuffle

Bitcoin’s supply dynamics are undergoing a ￰0￱ flows are pulling large volumes into long-term custody through spot ETFs , while government-controlled wallets are beginning to ￰1￱ two forces—private accumulation and public holdings—are rarely active at the same ￰2￱ overlap now introduces a new set of questions about how price reacts when most available supply is already spoken ￰3￱ matters for investors tracking structural ￰4￱ ETF inflows are not just passive ￰5￱ remove circulating coins from active markets and compress ￰6￱ wallet movements, on the other hand, often generate ￰7￱ timing and purpose of these transfers remain opaque, but their scale can impact short-term positioning, especially when market depth is already ￰8￱ ETF Holdings and Reduced Liquidity BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has become the largest single custodian of Bitcoin among spot ￰9￱ now holds more than 800,000 BTC according to filings and on-chain records, or about 3.8% of the total ￰10￱ with other U.

S. ETFs, the share of supply held by regulated funds has passed 5%. IBIT has crossed $100B in ￰11￱ this special episode of The Bid #podcast , Oscar Pulido explores why gold and bitcoin are gaining renewed attention as portfolio ￰12￱ from BlackRock leaders on what’s driving demand and what investors should consider now.… ￰13￱ — BlackRock (@BlackRock) October 13, 2025 This tightening has reduced available float across ￰14￱ from CoinMetrics shows that balances on major platforms like Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken have fallen by more than 90,000 BTC since late ￰15￱ decline corresponds with steady weekly inflows into ETF products and is changing the character of market ￰16￱ rallies are now often driven by thinner books, and corrections can be sharp when demand ￰17￱ Movements Raise Questions Blockchain observers tracked the latest transfers of nearly 667 BTC from U.

S. government-linked addresses associated with prior ￰18￱ were not ￰19￱ appear to be internal shifts across storage or custody structures. Still, such movements tend to generate concern over potential sell pressure, even when no exchange activity ￰20￱ ￰21￱ remains one of the largest single holders of Bitcoin, with over 200,000 BTC linked to enforcement ￰22￱ most of this has remained static, previous sales, including the 9,861 BTC offloaded in March, have been closely timed with price ￰23￱ now monitor these addresses alongside ETF flow data as part of liquidity ￰24￱ Between Demand and Supply Sensitivity The combination of steady institutional buying and static government balances creates a feedback ￰25￱ continue to absorb supply on predictable ￰26￱ holdings move in less transparent ways but have historically produced sharper reactions.

Together, they shrink tradable supply and increase market sensitivity to liquidity ￰27￱ warn that volatility may increase if ETF flows continue while governments begin to ￰28￱ the same time, developers and fund managers see the current setup as proof of Bitcoin’s growing presence in regulated ￰29￱ tension is structural ￰30￱ side adds ￰31￱ other adds ￰32￱ reshape how investors assess timing, risk, and ￰33￱ continue to absorb a growing share of circulating Bitcoin, pulling coins into long-term custody and reducing exchange ￰34￱ this trend extends, price action may begin to resemble less-liquid asset classes, with sharper swings and longer holding periods.

Government-held balances, meanwhile, introduce a different ￰35￱ coins are tied to legal processes and political timelines, not market ￰36￱ both private funds and public agencies sit on large supplies, trading behavior becomes more ￰37￱ may need to adjust expectations in a market shaped by passive controls and reduced float.