Prediction-market activity explodes in Q3 with volumes exceeding $3 billion

Prediction markets went absolutely parabolic last ￰0￱ and Polymarket just posted record-shattering numbers in the third quarter of 2025, with over $3 billion in notional volume, more than five times what they saw this time last ￰1￱ mania has topped even the madness of the 2024 US presidential election, and the surge has Wall Street’s CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange pushing their way ￰2￱ to data from Bloomberg, both platforms crossed $2 billion in the week ending October 19, the most they’ve ever ￰3￱ rally was mainly driven by a wave of sports betting, mostly through New York‑based Kalshi, which used its federal license to offer bets nationwide, ignoring state gambling regulators.

Kalshi’s contract volumes surged after football season kicked off in August and September, and users flooded in, especially retail traders from Robinhood, thanks to a new ￰4￱ the other side, Polymarket, still closed to US traders after infamous fights with regulators, saw a similar jump in traffic as crypto degens and political bettors found new events to bet ￰5￱ leverages Robinhood crowd as football spikes trading Football bets dominated the week of October 19, pulling in $867 million on Kalshi and $415 million on ￰6￱ gained an edge by offering parlays, allowing users to bet on several low-odds events at ￰7￱ prediction markets, every contract pays either $0 or $1 when the event ￰8￱ Analytics user dunedata tracked the public numbers, counting only one side of each trade to make the two exchanges comparable.

Kalshi’s data came from its own filings, which spokesperson Claire McManus confirmed were accurate. Meanwhile, Polymarket’s data was gotten from its public blockchain, after Rachel Lowe, speaking on behalf of the team, called the data there “the best available publicly,” while adding that there are “always nuances to it.” The last time volumes were this high was during the 2024 presidential election, when Kalshi won a court case against the Commodity Futures Trading ￰9￱ win let Kalshi legally host contracts on the election ￰10￱ Kalshi and Polymarket had bettors giving Donald Trump high odds of ￰11￱ his return to the White House, Trump and his circle have thrown their weight behind the ￰12￱ son, Donald Trump Jr., now serves as an adviser to both ￰13￱ reclaims lead as ICE and CME pile in In August, Kalshi briefly overtook Polymarket in overall trading volume thanks to ￰14￱ Polymarket snatched back the lead last week after doubling its sports-related ￰15￱ Kalshi rode a regulated edge in the U.

S., Polymarket stayed outside the country due to previous legal clashes. That’s ￰16￱ just bought QCX, a CFTC‑licensed derivatives exchange, a move that sets them up for a return to the ￰17￱ Street wants in. ICE, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, invested $2 billion for a stake in ￰18￱ Group is now planning to roll out contracts tied to sports ￰19￱ moves are coming even as DraftKings and FanDuel-owner Flutter Entertainment see their shares ￰20￱ platforms still depend on state-by-state gambling licenses, while Kalshi’s federal license gives it wider access, though not without ￰21￱ state regulators are now trying to shut Kalshi down, saying its bets violate state gaming ￰22￱ is fighting those cases in ￰23￱ McManus put it, “We’re federally regulated.

That’s what matters.” On October 18, during a rush of college football bets, users trading on Kalshi reported platform ￰24￱ admitted the site faced “data loading delays due to extreme demand” but said trading continued on the backend without ￰25￱ added that the issue was resolved ￰26￱ a premium crypto trading community free for 30 days - normally $100/mo.