Forget Bitcoin ETFs, Asia-US Liquidity Fight Will Decide BTC’s Fate

After heightened volatility, Bitcoin is trading above $110,800. But analysts warn the asset’s next move will depend less on ETF flows and more on a tug-of-war between Asian and US ￰0￱ suggest that regional flows are playing a far greater role than ETF headlines in shaping Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory. Bitcoin’s True Catalyst According to the latest report shared by CryptoQuant, on-chain and exchange data make this pattern ￰1￱ often lights the initial spark with aggressive trading activity, while the United States decides whether that spark ignites into an uninterrupted ￰2￱ netflows serve as a reliable proxy for institutional appetite, as consistent outflows indicate long-term accumulation by entities based in the ￰3￱ validating this is the Coinbase Premium Index (CPI), which measures the price gap between Coinbase’s USD markets and Binance’s USDT pairs.

A positive CPI has historically been associated with durable rallies, as it indicates that US demand is actively supporting higher ￰4￱ the other hand, Binance netflows reveal Asia’s influence, which is often tied to shorter-term sentiment and retail ￰5￱ inflows usually foreshadow sell pressure, while outflows suggest active ￰6￱ Korea Premium Index (KPI), widely known as the “Kimchi Premium” tracking Korean market sentiment, is currently pointing to moderate premiums that indicate healthy demand, but readings above 5% often warn of speculative excess. Together, these indicators reveal not a single dominant driver but a constant balance of ￰7￱ US institutional demand and Asian retail enthusiasm align – as reflected in both CPI and KPI flashing green simultaneously – Bitcoin rallies tend to accelerate with global ￰8￱ when leadership moves between the two regions, markets experience heightened volatility and sharp intraday ￰9￱ evolving structure challenges the outdated notion that “whales move the market,” demonstrating instead that regional liquidity flows dictate price ￰10￱ ahead to Q4, the true catalyst for Bitcoin’s next leg higher will be a decisive positive shift in the Coinbase Premium, coupled with Asia’s continued ability to absorb ￰11￱ synchronization, CryptoQuant believes, could transform sparks into a sustained ￰12￱ Hasn’t Hit Euphoria Yet Bitcoin’s market sentiment has entered the “faith and optimism” phase, as the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator currently sits at 0.52, which signals a mid-bull cycle.

Previously, this 0.5-0.6 range has triggered accelerated price moves, while peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 occurred when NUPL hit ￰13￱ say that while short-term profit-taking could set off corrections, the medium-term outlook points to continued upward ￰14￱ the pattern repeats, Bitcoin could surge toward the $120,000-$150,000 range. Importantly, the asset has not yet entered the “euphoria” zone.