Ethereum Supply Crisis? Billions in ETH Exit Exchanges

TL;DR Exchange balances fall from 27M ETH peak to negative, showing historic withdrawals and tightened liquid ￰0￱ trades at $4,390, down 3% weekly, but outflows suggest long-term accumulation by ￰1￱ add demand alongside exchange withdrawals, with analysts projecting ETH could target $10,000 next ￰2￱ Balances Turn Negative Ethereum’s exchange flux balance has slipped into negative territory for the first time on record, according to analyst Cas Abbé. The data shows that outflows from exchanges now exceed inflows, marking a shift in how ETH is being held. Abbé said, “This isn’t noise, it’s billions in ETH being pulled off exchanges.” Meanwhile, the move reflects shrinking liquid supply, as tokens are transferred into self-custody or cold storage.

Abbé added, “ETH isn’t being positioned to sell, it’s being positioned to hold.” Balances on exchanges have been falling since late ￰3￱ during sharp swings in price, the overall trend has pointed ￰4￱ decline has accelerated over the last two years, dropping from more than 27 million ETH at peak to below zero this month. $ETH Exchange Balance Just Went Negative For the first time on record, Ethereum Exchange Flux Balance shows net outflows across all ￰5￱ isn’t noise, it’s billions in ETH being pulled off ￰6￱ simple terms, liquid supply is shrinking while price is… ￰7￱ — Cas Abbé (@cas_abbe) September 5, 2025 Abbé noted that previous market cycles show tops forming only after this trend ￰8￱ conditions, by contrast, suggest ￰9￱ steady outflow signals that holders are choosing to lock up assets rather than trade ￰10￱ Price Trends At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $4,390 with a 24-hour volume of $24 billion, based on CoinGecko ￰11￱ asset has remained steady on a daily scale but is down by 3% over the past ￰12￱ momentum has cooled in the short term, exchange withdrawals point to reduced selling ￰13￱ Merlijn described Ethereum’s pattern as one that repeats across cycles.

“First, the shakeout. Then, the disbelief rally. Finally, the vertical blow-off,” he ￰14￱ chart places ETH in the disbelief rally, projecting a move above $10,000 if the cycle ￰15￱ Growth Adds Demand Ethereum exchange-traded funds have also played a role in recent ￰16￱ Road highlighted the strong inflows since July, saying , “The $ETH ETFs took their time getting started… but once momentum hit, they never looked back.” ETF participation, combined with shrinking exchange supply, has added to the demand side of the ￰17￱ more ETH moving off exchanges and institutional products growing, conditions point to a tightening supply environment.