Ethereum Price Analysis: Bullish Setup at Risk if ETH Falls Below This Key Level

Ethereum remains in a range phase following the recent market rebound, but continues to hold above key institutional demand ￰0￱ market has entered a period of consolidation between structural supports and resistances, suggesting that the next decisive move will likely be driven by liquidity displacement from this ￰1￱ Analysis By Shayan The Daily Chart On the daily timeframe, Ethereum continues to trade between two major zones: the institutional supply area around $4.6K–$4.7K and the institutional demand zone near $3.4K–$3.5K. After losing the channel’s lower trendline support earlier this month, the asset has now retested it from below, confirming it as ￰2￱ structure suggests that Ethereum is currently in a mid-range equilibrium phase, where neither buyers nor sellers have clear ￰3￱ 100-day MA, which previously provided dynamic support, has now flipped into a resistance zone near $4.1K–$4.2K, while the 200-day MA near $3.1K remains the last line of structural ￰4￱ long as the price remains above the $3.4K institutional demand, Ethereum’s macro trend stays intact.

However, failure to maintain this level could expose the market to a deeper retracement toward the $3.0K–$2.9K liquidity cluster, where the 200-day MA and prior accumulation base ￰5￱ 4-Hour Chart The 4-hour structure reveals a descending wedge pattern, forming after a sharp rejection from the $4.2K breakdown ￰6￱ repeated rejections at this confluence of descending and ascending trendlines reflect the ongoing tug-of-war between short-term buyers and ￰7￱ the same time, the lower boundary of the wedge aligns closely with the broader institutional demand zone, suggesting that Ethereum is approaching a point of compression where volatility expansion is ￰8￱ the price breaks above the descending trendline and closes above the $4K–$4.1K resistance, it could confirm a reversal, targeting $4.4K–$4.6K.

Conversely, a breakdown below $3.7K would likely trigger a deeper decline toward $3.4K, the same zone that underpins the broader bullish ￰9￱ confirmation occurs, Ethereum remains range-bound, oscillating between structural supply and ￰10￱ Analysis By Shayan Recent on-chain data points to a renewed tightening in Ethereum’s market ￰11￱ mid-October, two significant dynamics have emerged simultaneously: exchange reserves have declined sharply, while average spot order sizes have increasingly been dominated by large whale ￰12￱ October 15, ETH’s price has remained relatively stable just below the $4K level, but the underlying market composition has shifted meaningfully.

Whale-sized spot orders (green clusters) have expanded, signalling renewed activity from deep-pocketed participants, while the amount of Ethereum held on exchanges, measured in USD terms, has dropped to one of the lowest levels of ￰13￱ combination, shrinking exchange reserves and growing whale spot activity, has historically indicated strategic accumulation by institutional or high-net-worth ￰14￱ liquidity thinning across exchanges, even moderate inflows of new demand could produce amplified price reactions, as reduced sell-side availability magnifies volatility to the ￰15￱ now appears to be entering another supply squeeze phase, echoing the quiet but powerful accumulation period of late ￰16￱ that cycle, consistent spot buying and exchange outflows preceded one of ETH’s strongest multi-month ￰17￱ macro conditions stabilise and ETF-related inflows return, the current structural tightening could serve as the foundation for Ethereum’s next major upward cycle.