Bitfinex Alpha | Market Stabilises, but Momentum Remains Tentative

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wp-block-button:last-child . wp-block-button__link background-color: #1ABC91; border-color: #1abc9c; color: #fff; Following the historic $19 billion market liquidation event on October 10th, crypto markets have stabilised within narrower ￰1￱ continues to defend its key structural support at $107,500, which is the lower end of the July air gap which now serves as a critical floor. However, BTC remains below several key on-chain resistance levels, suggesting that while downside momentum has eased, the recovery phase is still ￰2￱ 18.1 percent peak-to-trough drawdown we have seen this month remains consistent with prior cycle-high retests since 2023, typically marking consolidation phases rather than trend reversals.

Yet, institutional demand has yet to return ￰3￱ ETFs recorded over $1.22 billion in net outflows last week, mirroring equity market weakness. Long-term holders have also reduced supply by roughly 0.3 million BTC since July, signalling steady profit-taking while new inflows lag ￰4￱ now, the $107,000–$108,000 zone remains a key inflection ￰5￱ to sustain above it would indicate demand-side fragility, potentially leading to further localised drawdowns before equilibrium is ￰6￱ US economy is entering a period of heightened uncertainty as the Federal Reserve is forced to operate without key data amid a government ￰7￱ official reports on inflation, jobs, and spending suspended, policymakers are relying on private indicators to guide decisions ahead of the late-October ￰8￱ economy shows neither clear weakness nor strength, leaving the Fed divided over whether to cut rates ￰9￱ are pricing in a 25 basis point cut, but tightening liquidity, volatile bond yields, and widening credit spreads reveal growing anxiety about a potential policy ￰10￱ remains stubbornly high, increasingly driven by tariffs rather than domestic ￰11￱ trade measures have added roughly half a percentage point to core inflation, with food and durable goods prices rising ￰12￱ costs are now the top source of consumer stress, keeping inflation expectations elevated and limiting the impact of future rate ￰13￱ manufacturing sector is feeling the strain, factory activity has contracted as input costs rise, while the housing market shows early recovery signs, thanks to lower mortgage rates.

Meanwhile, escalating US-China tensions have reintroduced global supply chain ￰14￱ Chinese export restrictions and potential US tariffs of up to 100 percent threaten to disrupt trade flows and push costs ￰15￱ markets remain calm, supply-driven inflation risks are re-emerging as companies shift production to Mexico and Southeast ￰16￱ US crypto landscape is rapidly maturing as institutions and policymakers move to integrate blockchain into mainstream ￰17￱ the policy level, Florida introduced a bill that would allow up to 10 percent of the state’s public and pension funds to be invested in Bitcoin, tokenised assets, and crypto ETFs by 2026, a sign of growing acceptance of digital assets as legitimate portfolio diversifiers.

Meanwhile, Ripple announced a $1 billion acquisition of GTreasury, marking its expansion from blockchain payments into corporate treasury ￰18￱ deal aims to give Ripple more exposure to enterprise liquidity and cash ￰19￱ to the momentum, New York City has launched an Office of Digital Assets and Blockchain Technology , in an attempt to develop its own position as a potential hub for responsible crypto innovation and institutional adoption.