Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bearish Signs Emerge as BTC Breaks Below Crucial Support

Bitcoin is on the verge of breaking below its crucial wedge pattern, likely indicating a bearish sentiment in the market. Nevertheless, the price is recharging within equilibrium, awaiting either institutional absorption or a deeper liquidity sweep before the next major ￰0￱ Analysis By Shayan The Daily Chart On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin has decisively broken below the 200-day MA of $109K, indicating a notable bearish ￰1￱ market has repeatedly rebounded from the $103K–$108K demand zone, suggesting that buyers are still active at these levels. Yet, the series of lower highs below $116K indicates ongoing pressure from the supply zone, keeping the price locked in an equilibrium range between $105K and $116K.

This structure resembles a mid-range accumulation pattern, where liquidity is continuously recycled between buyers and sellers before a larger directional expansion. A decisive daily close back above the 200-day MA would mark a bear trap and false breakout, leading to a bullish structural shift toward $116K supply zone, while a breakdown below the $106K support could trigger a retest of the $102K–$100K institutional demand ￰2￱ 4-Hour Chart The 4-hour chart highlights the current ascending wedge formation, with BTC retesting the lower trendline near the $106K support ￰3￱ area aligns with the bottom of the larger daily equilibrium range, making it a critical region to monitor for a potential rebound.

A successful defense of this zone would likely set the stage for another retest of the $114K–$116K resistance, while failure to hold could result in a sharper move toward the $102K demand ￰4￱ and liquidity metrics suggest that buyers remain cautious, waiting for clear confirmation before re-engaging aggressively. On-Chain Analysis The latest Exchange Reserve data reveals a crucial divergence between global and localized exchange ￰5￱ total Bitcoin reserves across all major exchanges have continued to decline, signaling long-term accumulation and reduced selling pressure, Binance’s exchange reserves have notably increased in recent ￰6￱ discrepancy implies that while the broader market participants are moving coins into self-custody (a bullish long-term signal), short-term liquidity is building up on Binance, potentially representing increased trading activity or hedging by institutional participants.

Historically, such inflows to a dominant exchange during consolidation phases often precede heightened volatility, as market makers position for the next major ￰7￱ this rising Binance reserve trend continues while total exchange reserves drop, it may point toward a pre-distribution or rebalancing phase before another accumulation-driven rally begins.