Bitcoin Exchange Supply Ratio Declines After Fed Cut, Setting Stage For $120,000 Test

Earlier this week, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates by 25 basis points, providing the much-required impetus to the economy after a cycle of raising interest rates to keep inflation under check. A cut in interest rates is likely to benefit risk-on assets, including Bitcoin (BTC). Fed Cuts Interest Rate, Bitcoin Supply Ratio Falls According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, the latest data from Binance shows that the interest rate cut has rekindled investors’ interest in BTC. Notably, the exchange supply ratio has declined to 0.0291, hinting that investors are choosing to withdraw their BTC from exchanges and hold it for the long-term instead of selling ￰0￱ Reading: Bitcoin Breaks Above Mid-Term Holder Breakeven – Is A Fresh Rally Brewing?

To support their analysis, Arab Chain shared the following chart, which shows a tumbling exchange supply ratio while the BTC price continues to shoot ￰1￱ analyst noted that the interest rate cut has increased risk appetite and improved liquidity in the ￰2￱ behavior shows that the Fed’s monetary policy will remain dovish for the near term, which could mitigate selling pressure on BTC for the time ￰3￱ exchange supply is creating relative buying pressure, as Bitcoin’s stability above $115,000 further supports this ￰4￱ analyst remarked that if BTC outflows from crypto exchanges continue at the current pace, then the digital asset may target the $120,000 resistance level.

However, liquidity must continue to flow into digital assets, driven by the Fed’s ￰5￱ Chain added: The continued decline in the Exchange Supply Ratio for Bitcoin, coupled with a rising price, reinforces the bullish scenario, especially if traditional markets stabilize after the Fed’s decision. Conversely, if the Exchange Supply Ratio turns upward again (if Bitcoin reenters exchanges), it could signal that investors are preparing to take profits at levels near 118K–120K. Meanwhile, crypto analyst Titan of Crypto had similar ￰6￱ an X post, the analyst shared the following chart, saying that BTC is currently stuck under the bearish fair value gap.

A daily close above this gap – highlighted in red – could pave the way for a new high for ￰7￱ BTC Facing A Supply Crunch? A declining exchange supply ratio further suggests that BTC may be approaching a bullish ‘supply crunch’ that could lead to significant price appreciation for the digital asset in the near ￰8￱ Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment On Binance Turns Bullish – But Is The Market Setting A Trap? Recently, the Bitcoin Scarcity Index recorded its first spike since June 2025, indicating potential upward price pressure on BTC. Meanwhile, BTC outflows from Binance continue at a rapid pace, further reducing the digital asset’s active circulating ￰9￱ said, some concerns still linger, specifically due to the lack of participation of whales in recent BTC price ￰10￱ press time, BTC trades at $116,374, down 1.3% in the past 24 ￰11￱ image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant, X, and ￰12￱