Bitcoin Trapped Until 2026 as Holiday Trading Drains Market Liquidity: QCP

Bitcoin remains range-bound heading into Christmas as thinning liquidity and year-end de-risking push traders to the sidelines, with perpetual open interest dropping $3 billion for BTC and $2 billion for ETH overnight, leaving markets vulnerable to sharp moves in either direction despite reduced leverage, according to QCP Capital . While gold surged to fresh all-time highs , gaining 67% year to date, Bitcoin has failed to break free from consolidation between $85,000 support and $93,000 resistance, closing out what analysts call its “ weakest year-end performance in seven years. ” The compression comes ahead of Friday’s record-breaking Boxing Day options expiry, when roughly 300,000 Bitcoin option contracts worth $23.7 billion, alongside 446,000 IBIT option contracts, will expire. This, according to QCP, represents over 50% of Deribit’s total open interest. Source: X/@coinbureau Open interest in $85,000 puts has drifted lower from 15,000 to roughly 12,000 contracts as spot stabilizes, while $100,000 calls have held relatively stable around 17,000 contracts, indicating residual optimism for a Santa rally despite limited conviction. Year-End Flows Amplify Volatility Risk Bitcoin risk reversals show easing bearish sentiment compared to the past 30 days, gradually normalizing toward pre-October levels as downside positioning softens, QCP observed. Tax-loss harvesting ahead of the December 31 deadline could amplify short-term volatility, particularly since crypto investors can realize losses and immediately re-establish positions without wash-sale rule restrictions that apply to equities. “ Holiday-driven moves have historically tended to mean-revert ,” QCP stated, noting that Christmas week price action typically fades as liquidity returns in January, “ much like low-liquidity weekend spikes that often retrace once markets reopen. “ Beyond options flows, on-chain data reveals weakening buying pressure across multiple metrics. CryptoQuant analysis shows a declining buy-volume divergence in Binance futures markets, resembling the 2021 cycle structure, where price continued to rise while volume consistently declined, which is a trend that has yet to recover. Source: CryptoQuant Active addresses are also declining sharply, indicating that on-chain OTC activity and overall market participation are fading. Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $461.8 million in outflows over three days, led by BlackRock’s $173.6 million and Fidelity’s $170.3 million as year-end risk-off pressure builds. Institutional Holders Stay Steady Despite Drawdown Despite a more than 30% drawdown from October highs, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF holdings have declined by less than 5%, indicating institutional allocators are largely holding through the current downturn. “ Selling pressure is primarily retail-driven from leveraged and short-term participants ,” Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, told Cryptonews. Backing this, recent data show that global crypto ETPs have attracted $87 billion in net inflows since U.S. Bitcoin ETPs launched in January 2024. He added that Bitcoin “ has not traded like digital gold in 2025 ” due to heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic factors, with upside now “ tied to liquidity expansion, sovereign policy clarity, and risk sentiment, rather than to monetary debasement alone. “ Speaking with Cryptonews, Farzam Ehsani, Co-founder and CEO of VALR, also noted that “ the end of this year remains one of the more challenging periods for cryptocurrencies in recent years, amid seasonal weakness, persistent overbought conditions, and a return of investor interest to more conservative instruments, primarily US government bonds. “ He outlined two plausible scenarios: Either the current drawdown reflects strategic positioning by large players ahead of renewed accumulation. The market is undergoing a deeper reset driven by macro headwinds and Federal Reserve policy. Recovery Timeline Extends Into 2026 Speaking with Cryptonews, John Glover, Chief Investment Officer of Ledn, expects “ continued volatility with prices dipping to between $71k and $84k, which will form the bottom of Wave IV ” before the fifth and final wave begins. “ My Wave V remains at $145k to $160k ,” he stated, though completion of the current correction “ will take months to finish .” Ehsani sees scope for Bitcoin to revisit the $100,000–$120,000 range in the second quarter of 2026, noting that “ a renewed historical price high could occur as early as the first half of 2026. ” Notably, Michael Van De Poppe also observed that rejection at $90,000 “ isn’t a bad sign, as of yet, ” with markets clearly wanting “ $86K to hold as support ” to provide enough momentum to challenge resistance zones. #Bitcoin rejects at a crucial resistance zone and continues the sideways price action. That's unfortunate, but it remains to be building and upwards trend on the lower timeframes. Rejection at $90K isn't a bad sign, as of yet. The markets clearly want $86K to hold as… pic.twitter.com/iBG0xqPQ7o — Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) December 23, 2025 The post Bitcoin Trapped Until 2026 as Holiday Trading Drains Market Liquidity: QCP appeared first on Cryptonews .