Bitcoin Price Eyes Recovery Above $70K as Brazil Plans 1M BTC Sovereign Reserve

Bitcoin price is consolidating near $68,000 after recent volatility and a 30% drop over the past month. With $2.5 billion in BTC options expiring today and Brazil reintroducing a bold bill to acquire up to 1 million BTC, markets are showing both caution and long-term interest. Data from Glassnode shows that Bitcoin is trading within a $65,000 to $73,000 range, with open interest in options markets rising. Despite the sideways price action, derivatives activity suggests traders are preparing for larger price swings. Open Interest and Volatility Climb Ahead of Options Expiry Glassnode reports that BTC options open interest has climbed back to 452,000 BTC, nearing its late Q4 2025 high. This comes after the December 26 expiry caused a sharp drop in positions. The recent increase suggests that traders are once again positioning for movement. Source: Glassnode At the same time, volatility expectations are rising. One-month and three-month at-the-money implied volatility have gained around 10 points. This trend shows traders are pricing in larger forward moves despite the current market calm. Skew, a measure of option pricing between puts and calls, moved from 6% to 18% in just a month. According to Glassnode, this indicates strong demand for downside protection. Rather than betting on gains, traders are hedging against further declines. Brazil Reintroduces Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Proposal On February 13, 2026, Brazil’s Congress reintroduced Bill 4501/2024, which proposes the creation of a Strategic Sovereign Bitcoin Reserve (RESBit). If passed, it would authorize Brazil to acquire up to 1 million BTC over five years. This move would make Brazil the world’s largest state Bitcoin holder. Federal Deputy Luiz Gastão confirmed that the proposal includes a $68 billion expenditure plan. The reserve would support economic resilience and monetary sovereignty. The bill suggests Bitcoin should also serve as collateral for Drex, Brazil’s central bank digital currency. The bill expands on earlier versions, now including legal guarantees for self-custody, free asset transfer, and transaction privacy. If passed, it would also prevent any restrictions on transfers to user-controlled wallets. Brazil’s Bitcoin Plan Includes Tax Payments and ETF Holdings The proposed law goes beyond direct Bitcoin purchases. It allows public institutions to accumulate BTC through taxes paid in Bitcoin, hold BTC-backed spot ETFs during emergencies, and authorize government companies to acquire and store Bitcoin. Bill 4501/2024 states that the Brazilian central bank and Ministry of Finance will manage these assets. Semi-annual reports to Congress would provide updates on Bitcoin custody, performance, and usage. The Internal Revenue Service would have 12 months to build the infrastructure for this system. Deputy Gastão said these actions are necessary to protect citizens’ purchasing power and prepare the economy for digital transformation. Congressman Eros Biondini, the bill’s original author, previously described RESBit as a move to reduce inflation risk and promote economic innovation. Global Reserve Trends and BTC Price Reaction Brazil’s move aligns with a growing global trend. Other countries exploring Bitcoin reserves include Germany, France, and the Philippines. Germany’s AfD party, France’s lawmakers, and the Philippine Congress have all proposed national BTC strategies to counter inflation and strengthen sovereignty. As Brazil’s proposal advances, Bitcoin traders are watching for how institutional demand could influence price recovery. While BTC remains below its $74,000 max pain level for options expiry, long-term holders may see renewed confidence if such national-level buying becomes law. BTC’s current price near $68,000 keeps bulls cautious. Yet with Brazil potentially entering the market as a buyer of up to 1 million BTC, traders are positioning for possible upside. Combined with rising open interest, higher implied volatility, and sovereign demand, Bitcoin’s next move could break out of its current range.