Solana’s Yakovenko Warns Bitcoin Has 5 Years to Prepare for Quantum Computing Threat

Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko urged Bitcoin to accelerate quantum-resistant upgrades, warning there’s a 50% chance of a quantum breakthrough within five years that could compromise existing cryptographic ￰0￱ at the All-In Summit 2025, Yakovenko said Bitcoin should migrate to quantum-resistant signature schemes as AI acceleration makes the timeline from research to implementation “ astounding .” His warning aligns with growing industry concerns about quantum computers’ ability to break elliptic curve cryptography , which protects Bitcoin ￰1￱ quantum machines have around 1,000 qubits, but experts estimate thousands or millions would be needed to threaten crypto ￰2￱ giants, including IBM, Google, and Microsoft, are pushing massive development timelines with some targeting millions of qubits within the coming ￰3￱ founder Anatoly Yakovenko speaking at the All-in Summit.

() Vulnerable Bitcoin Holdings at Risk Cybersecurity experts estimate approximately 30% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, roughly 6-7 million BTC worth hundreds of billions of dollars, remains vulnerable to potential quantum ￰4￱ coins sit in older Pay-to-Public-Key addresses or reused Pay-to-Pubkey-Hash formats that expose public keys directly on the ￰5￱ an interview with Cryptonew, David Carvalho, CEO of Naoris Protocol and a former ethical hacker, warned that adversaries may already be implementing “ harvest now, decrypt later ” ￰6￱ attacks involve collecting encrypted blockchain data today for future decryption once quantum computers become capable ￰7￱ response to the growing threat of this technology, El Salvador took proactive steps in September , splitting its 6,284 BTC national reserve across 14 separate addresses to reduce exposure to quantum ￰8￱ redistribution followed security experts’ recommendations to avoid single-address storage that concentrates risk when public keys become visible through ￰9￱ financial institutions have also begun acknowledging quantum ￰10￱ highlighted quantum computing threats in Bitcoin ETF filings, while Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino warned about inactive wallet ￰11￱ Timeline Estimates Converging on Late 2020s Multiple quantum computing experts have narrowed their estimates for when quantum computers could break Bitcoin’s security to the late 2020s or early ￰12￱ back to 2017, researchers, including Divesh Aggarwal and Gavin Brennen, initially warned that elliptic curve cryptography could be broken “ as early as 2027 .” However, Gavin Brennen from Macquarie University recently updated his assessment, noting that required quantum computer sizes have dropped from 10-20 million qubits to around one million. “ Quantum computers pose a threat to blockchains, primarily by attacks on digital signatures, and cryptocurrencies should get started sooner rather than later to upgrade their systems to use post-quantum cryptography before their asset valuations are threatened ,” Gavin ￰13￱ also shared that “ French startup Alice & Bob estimates that specialized quantum computers with just 126,000 physical qubits could crack 256-bit elliptic curve signatures. ” According to a Cryptonew interview in April, John Lilic, CEO of Telos and an early Ethereum contributor, has stopped making deals involving tokens after 2027 or 2028 based on his quantum timeline ￰14￱ warned that quantum attacks will appear innocuous initially, resembling dormant wallets becoming active rather than obvious security ￰15￱ convergence of AI with quantum computing has accelerated development timelines beyond earlier predictions.

Microsoft’s recent chip breakthroughs prompted claims that quantum computing is now “ years, not decades ” away.