The crypto Fear and Greed Index plunged from 64 (Greed) to 27 (Fear) within 24 hours following President Donald Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, triggering what CoinGlass described as “ the largest liquidation event in crypto history. ” Over 1.66 million traders were liquidated with total losses exceeding $19.33 billion, though actual figures may surpass $30 billion according to some estimates, as Binance only reports one liquidation order per second.) October 11, 2025 The collapse dwarfed previous record events, including the March 2020 COVID crash that saw $1.2 billion in liquidations and the November 2022 FTX collapse with $1.6 billion.
Friday’s event was approximately 20 times larger than the COVID crash, with Brian Strugats of Multicoin Capital noting the focus now turns to “ counterparty exposure and whether this triggers broader market contagion .” October’s Historical Strength Faces Unprecedented Test Yesterday, Economist Timothy Peterson noted that drops of more than 5% in October are “exceedingly rare,” occurring only four times in the past decade during October 2017, 2018, 2019, and 0 each previous drop, Bitcoin rebounded by 16% in 2017, 4% in 2018, and 21% in 2019, with only 2021 seeing a further 3% 1 ranks as Bitcoin’s second-best performing month on average since 2013, delivering average returns of 20.10% and trailing only November’s 46.02% average gain according to CoinGlass 2 of more than 5% in October are exceedingly 3 has happened only 4 times in the past 10 4 24 2017 Oct 11 2018 Oct 23 2019 Oct 21 2021 What happened next? 7 days later bitcoin was 2017: up 16% 2018: up 4% 2019: up 21% 2021: down -3% 5 — Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 10, 2025 If history repeats and Bitcoin mirrors its strongest October rebound of 21% from 2019, a similar move from Friday’s $102,000 low would place the cryptocurrency around $124,000 within a week.
However, Trump’s tariff announcement scheduled for November 1 in response to Beijing’s export restrictions on rare earth elements creates ongoing policy 6 president later hinted he could reverse tariffs if China changes course before the deadline, potentially triggering a short-term market recovery, though liquidation losses remain locked 7 to Bloomberg , Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, identified $100,000 as Bitcoin’s next major support level, below which “ would signal the end of past three-year bull cycle. ” Bitcoin options markets reflected this view with the highest number of put strikes at $110,000 and the next highest at $100,000, according to Deribit data.) October 11, 2025 Resistance zones above current prices stand at $117,933, $124,475, and the recent high around $126,000.
The $20 billion liquidation cleared extreme leverage, potentially removing selling pressure, though the sustainability of any bounce depends on fundamental 8 characteristics don’t demonstrate overwhelming conviction in either 9 trades at $3,833 after testing $3,400, with immediate resistance at the $4,000 psychological level necessary for upward 10 zones sit around $3,600 to $3,800, with failure to reclaim $4,000 likely triggering retests of these 11 resistance stands at $4,080, $4,265, and $4,783. RSI indicators reached oversold levels historically associated with reversals, though these can remain depressed during genuine bear 12 assets face genuine uncertainty following the liquidation 13 must reclaim and hold above $113,500 to validate recovery scenarios toward $117,000-$120,000, while failure would likely result in retesting $102,000 or potentially $95,000-$100,000.
Ethereum needs sustained trading above $4,000 to trigger momentum toward $4,200-$4,500, with a breakdown risking moves toward $3,600-$3,800. The clearing of leveraged positions removes immediate selling pressure, though the unresolved tariff and potential for additional volatility suggest consolidation between current levels and recent lows remains the most probable near-term outcome before directional clarity emerges.
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