You’ve Been Misled! The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Doesn’t Actually Exist—Expert

According to comments from the creator of the stock-to-flow model, the familiar four-year cycle tied to Bitcoin halvings may no longer be a sure guide for ￰0￱ Reading: You Want $1K XRP? You’ll Need Iron Nerves — Or ‘Mental Illness’, Analyst Says The analyst — known as PlanB — warned that using just three past cycles to predict future tops is risky, and he said the next peak is not guaranteed to fall 18 months after the last halving in ￰1￱ Timing May Vary Widely PlanB told followers that the top could arrive in 2026, or 2027, or even 2028, and that he is more focused on Bitcoin’s average price level than on a single high or ￰2￱ have disclosed that some market participants believe $126,000 was the peak and expect BTC to slide below $100,000 next ￰3￱ called that view “a big misunderstanding,” arguing that three cycles do not form a strong statistical ￰4￱ think $126k was the top, and btc will fall below $100k, and 2026 will be a bear market mainly because … the 4 year cycle!?

IMO that is a BIG misunderstanding. Yes, there is a 4y halving cycle that doubles S2F-ratio, and 6 months before until 18 months after a halving was… ￰5￱ — PlanB (@100trillionUSD) October 20, 2025 Spot Versus Paper Liquidity According to some experts, the last bull run’s top was driven largely by short-term liquidity in paper derivative ￰6￱ on reports, they see less of that paper-driven liquidity this cycle, while longer-term spot buying has held up so ￰7￱ shift could mean the next major move in price will come from different places than ￰8￱ Sentiment Shifts With Price Moves Reports show Bitcoin briefly fell below $103,000 last week, sparking worries that a bear market had ￰9￱ noted that sentiment changed quickly — traders were hoping for a bounce so they could exit at a decent ￰10￱ action has been ￰11￱ dropped more than 3% over a few hours on Tuesday morning Asian trading, slipping to about $107,000 before finding support near $108,000.

No Clear Phase Transition Yet PlanB said he has not seen a clear “phase transition” for Bitcoin in this ￰12￱ means either the big institutional-driven jump is still ahead, or the market has moved toward a steadier price regime shaped by funds, mandates, and ￰13￱ possibilities, he argued, could be positive for Bitcoin over time because they imply different forms of lasting ￰14￱ Reading: The XRP Shockwave Will Hit When No One’s Watching—Analyst Short-term volatility has kept traders on ￰15￱ when price recovers, the mood can flip ￰16￱ on reports, crypto markets still need stronger fundamentals or sustained flows to calm nerves and push prices higher for a longer ￰17￱ image from Gemini, chart from TradingView