U.S. Labor Market Declined in September, Fueling Rate Cut Odds – Bullish for Bitcoin’s Q4 Run?

Bitcoin extended its rally into October, breaking above $117,000 for the first time since mid-September as fresh ￰1￱ market data boosted expectations of Federal Reserve rate ￰2￱ world’s largest cryptocurrency jumped more than 4% on the day , decisively shattering the $115,000 resistance ￰3￱ move came after the Automatic Data Processing (ADP), a U. S.-based payroll and HR management company, reported a surprise loss of 32,000 private payrolls in September , versus expectations for a gain of 45,000. It marked the third decline in the past four months , indicating clear signs of economic ￰4￱ ARE STARTING TO PRICE IN 4 CUTS FOR 2025 After today’s ADP private payrolls print came in negative for the second month in a row, odds of just 2 cuts are ￰5￱ probability is shifting toward 3 cuts… and even 4 are now being priced ￰6￱ up: Initial Jobless… ￰0￱ ￰7￱ — Sam Badawi (@samsolid57) October 1, 2025 Labor Market Weakness Reignites Rate Cut Odds at 99% Job openings rose by just 19,000 in August to 7.208 million, still near their lowest since January ￰8￱ three-month average fell to 7.26 million , a 4.5-year low and below pre-pandemic levels.

Meanwhile, the job vacancy-to-unemployment ratio dropped to 0.98 , its weakest reading since April 2021.) October 1, 2025 A dovish Fed is widely viewed as a tailwind for Bitcoin, weakening the dollar and driving demand for risk ￰9￱ aligns with Bitcoin’s historical seasonality. October, November, and December have consistently delivered strong returns, with “Uptober” often kicking off a year-end ￰10￱ Patterns Align: Will Q4 Deliver Bitcoin’s Next Mega Rally? On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin entering Q4 with conditions supportive of a ￰11￱ reclaiming the Trader’s Realized Price at $116K, Bitcoin has re-entered the bull phase of its cycle indicator.) October 1, 2025 Within this structure, levels at $106,400 and $125,600 are identified as automatic reaction and support zones, while upside projections between $150,000 and $185,000 are considered major targets in the first quarter of ￰12￱ suggests Bitcoin remains early in a larger bullish expansion phase , with pullbacks likely to serve as healthy corrections rather than the start of a deeper ￰13￱ Analysis: Bitcoin Support at $108K, Resistance at $120K, Eyes on $135K+ On the technical front, Bitcoin is consolidating near $117,000 with clearly defined thresholds for both bullish continuation and potential ￰14￱ key structural support sits near $108,131.

Should price falls below this level, it would flip the outlook bearish. However, as long as Bitcoin holds above the $113,000 to $118,000 range, the broader trend remains favorable for the ￰15￱ the upside, immediate resistance lies at $120,000, a psychological barrier that, if broken, could open the path toward new all-time highs above $130,000. Should momentum persist, targets in the $122,000 to $125,000 range come into focus, with extension projections pointing as high as $145,000 to $150,000.