U.S. Inflation Stays at 2.9% to Boost Rate Cut Expectations – Bitcoin Rally to $140K?

Bitcoin is back in the spotlight as fresh ￰0￱ data has intensified expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, bringing a boost across risk ￰1￱ CPI holding steady at 2.9% year-over-year , analysts suggest Bitcoin may now be primed for a fresh price discovery phase, setting sights on a new all-time high near $140,000. Similarly, ￰2￱ CPI (ex-Food/Energy) increased to 3.1%, the highest level since February, while weekly unemployment claims spiked to 263K, the highest since October ￰3￱ US CPI moved up to 2.9% in August, the highest level since ￰4￱ Core CPI (ex-Food/Energy) moved up to 3.1%, the highest level since ￰5￱ rising inflation, the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 bps next week and another 25 bps in October & ￰6￱ — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) September 11, 2025 Fed Rate-Cut Expectations: The $140K Bitcoin Catalyst?

Additionally, the U. S. 10-year note yield officially dropped below 4% for the first time since April 4, confirming market readiness to fully price in three 25-bps interest rate cuts by ￰7￱ odds of the cuts on Polymarket ahead of the Fed’s September 16th – 17th FOMC meeting have now surged to 84% for a 25 bps cut, with 50 bps and no rate cut at 13.1% and 2.4%, respectively.) more attractive. Historically, Bitcoin rallies when markets anticipate easier monetary ￰8￱ most prominent Fed rate cut cycle in recent times was in March 2020, when COVID-19 hit. 5 years ago we had a stock market crisis in ￰9￱ fell 40% in one day and 65% ￰10￱ S&P 500 fell 9.5% on that same ￰11￱ bottomed at $4,000 then went up by 17x in the rebound from the crisis as we printed ￰12￱ Bitcoin now falls 45% from the top and… ￰13￱ — Luke Broyles (@luke_broyles) April 7, 2025 The Fed slashed rates by 50 bps on March 3, 2020, and then by a full 100 bps on March 15, 2020, bringing rates down to near zero (0–0.25%).

This triggered massive liquidity injections (QE), but initially, crypto markets (including Bitcoin) crashed due to panic selling. However, as stimulus and rate cuts took effect, Bitcoin rallied from ~$5K in March 2020 to $69K by November 2021 Bitcoin’s Next Move: $105K Dip Before $140K Moon? Now, BTC looks like it wants to mimic similar price ￰14￱ the CPI data, BTC pumped above $114,500, but is now declining again, which shows that inflation is still hot, and markets are reacting accordingly. $BTC tapped the $114,500 liquidity region and then went down. Usually, the US market (NY) session has resulted in price correction for Bitcoin.

Also, CPI has increased 0.2% MoM which means inflation is still a concern. I think today's price action will be very ￰15￱ — Ted (@TedPillows) September 11, 2025 Given that Bitcoin averaged a 9% drop after each CPI report in recent months, analysts point to a revisit of $105k-107K before the ultimate rally above $124k all-time ￰16￱ BitBull spotted a key MACD bullish crossover on Bitcoin’s chart, the first since the April ￰17￱ technical sign occurred on September 5, when Bitcoin’s momentum indicators flipped positive, suggesting a potential trend ￰18￱ just had a MACD golden cross on the daily ￰19￱ this one is a bit ￰20￱ the first time since April bottom, BTC had a MACD bullish cross below 0 ￰21￱ time it happened, BTC rallied 40% in a month and hit a new ￰22￱ — BitBull (@AkaBull_) September 10, 2025 BitBull notes that similar patterns historically preceded major rallies: “Last time this setup occurred, Bitcoin surged 40% within a month and reached new highs.” The MACD momentum shift could drive Bitcoin toward $140,000, aligning with price predictions from analysts, including Finam Holdings’ Nikita ￰23￱ aggressive targets from Bitwise’s Matt Hougan and Arthur Hayes project $200k-$250k ￰24￱ Analysis: Bitcoin Chart Points to Bull Run Continuation On the technical front, Bitcoin is now breaking out of a descending channel that has contained price action since ￰25￱ chart shows two key ascending triangle ￰26￱ is completed and has already triggered a breakout above the channel resistance, and a larger ascending triangle in the downtrend phase is now being validated.