On-Chain Data Shows Bitcoin Far From Peak as Analyst Maps $240K Bull Case

On-chain data from Checkonchain and Unchained shows that B itcoin is far from its peak, as the leading crypto asset has yet to “ enter the euphoric right tail in the current cycle. “ James Check, co-founder and Bitcoin analyst at Checkonchain, reveals that the current all-time high Bitcoin price of $124k is approximately 1.8x the 2021 peak of $69k. To validate the ‘diminishing returns’ bull case target, the Bitcoin price would need to surpass $240k, hitting a 3.5x multiple from the prior cycle high. We're extremely excited to release The Bitcoin Checkpoint Report by @_checkonchain in paretnership with @unchained This 62-page PDF report explores how this Bitcoin cycle is measurably different, across numerous market verticals and sectors. ￰0￱ — _Checkmate (@_Checkmatey_) September 29, 2025 He added that whether Bitcoin reaches $240k or $300k, neither feels completely outside the realm of possibility now that Bitcoin is trading north of $100k.

“It was much harder to envision such heights in the pits of the 2022 bear market,” he ￰1￱ Structure Development Shows that Bitcoin is Far from Peak One of the most popular debates of this cycle has been whether the classic four-year halving cycle is likely to play out as it has in the ￰2￱ at Checkonchain reveal that both of the last two bull cycles found their ultimate market peak in the fourth quarter of the calendar year.) September 28, 2025 Technical Analysis: Weekly Chart Shows Bullish Structure with $157K Target On the technical front, the weekly Bitcoin chart shows a strong bullish structure supported by consistent higher highs and higher ￰3￱ price has been respecting the 20-week moving average as dynamic support, with the 50-week MA providing a deeper floor during ￰4￱ breakout above previous highs has led to major rallies, with pullbacks finding support near prior resistance levels that have flipped into new ￰5￱ most recent move shows Bitcoin consolidating around $113,880, holding well above the last major support near $95,000.

The chart projects a potential upside extension toward the $157,000 level, which aligns with the historical rhythm of 40–50% rallies after each ￰6￱ long as Bitcoin continues to hold above the $100,000–$105,000 support zone and maintains the 20-week MA as a guide, momentum favors the bulls.