JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Is ‘Undervalued’—But By How Much?

JPMorgan has thrown fresh fuel on the most durable comparison in digital assets, arguing in a new research note that Bitcoin now screens “too cheap” versus gold as its volatility collapses to historic ￰0￱ Undervalued Is Bitcoin? The bank’s cross-asset team says six-month BTC volatility has fallen from nearly 60% at the start of 2025 to roughly 30%—a series low—and that Bitcoin is now only about twice as volatile as gold, the narrowest gap on ￰1￱ the bank’s volatility-adjusted framework, that compression implies Bitcoin’s market value would need to rise about 13%—translating to roughly $126,000 per coin—to align with the roughly $5 trillion private investment market in gold, leaving BTC “undervalued by around $16,000” on this ￰2￱ Reading: Bitcoin And The September Curse: Can This Time Be Different?

The framing ￰3￱ is not saying Bitcoin should be as large as the entire gold complex—jewelry, central-bank reserves and industrial uses included—but rather that on a risk-adjusted basis, given how much less volatile BTC has become relative to bullion, Bitcoin’s capitalization can justify a higher level than where it trades today if one benchmarks against gold’s private-investment slice of the ￰4￱ headline takeaway—“Bitcoin undervalued ￰5￱ as volatility falls”—was amplified by market-moving account Walter Bloomberg on X, underscoring the point that the valuation gap is a function of volatility as much as ￰6￱ bank’s analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, attribute part of the volatility collapse to an evolving holder base and market ￰7￱ point to accelerating accumulation by corporate treasuries—which they estimate now hold more than 6% of circulating supply—and to index-related dynamics that are drawing passive capital into equities tied to Bitcoin exposure, both of which dampen day-to-day ￰8￱ cause-and-effect is straightforward in their telling: a larger, more stable base of “sticky” holders lowers realized volatility, which in turn raises fair value on a volatility-normalized, gold-relative ￰9￱ Parity And Beyond The claim also drew a pointed reaction from industry commentators.

“It’s only a matter of time until Bitcoin reaches parity with gold,” argued Joe Consorti, head of growth at Theya, calling JPMorgan’s note “a big admission.” Related Reading: Bitcoin & Ethereum Whale Populations Quietly Growing, On-Chain Data Reveals In his view, the longer-run destination is not parity on a risk-adjusted model but outright dominance: “At today’s market capitalization, Bitcoin would trade at $1.17 million per coin if it were equal to the size of gold.” He extends the thought experiment into a timeline, contending that if Bitcoin and gold simply maintain their five-year compound growth rates, parity arrives in the early 2030s.

“If Bitcoin and gold simply keep growing at their current five-year compound annual growth rates, parity arrives in late ￰10￱ would mean a $53 trillion market cap for Bitcoin and a price north of $2.5 million per ￰11￱ under more conservative assumptions, the convergence still happens in the early ￰12￱ it’s not just about Bitcoin’s growth, it’s also about gold losing market share,” the analyst ￰13￱ just admitted bitcoin at $112k is undervalued versus ￰14￱ would be $1.17M if it was the size of gold ￰15￱ will bitcoin reach gold parity, and how much will it be worth? B2YB @JoinHorizon_ ￰16￱ — Joe Consorti ⚡️ (@JoeConsorti) August 28, 2025 While these are Consorti’s projections, not JPMorgan’s, they sketch the more maximalist endpoint of the same relative-value ￰17￱ press time, BTC traded at $111,061.

Featured image created with DALL. E, chart from ￰18￱