Is Bitcoin’s Bull Market Redefining Itself as Staircase-Style? MVRV Data Suggests Yes

Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has once again slipped below its 365-day simple moving average (SMA365), which has raised questions about whether the current cycle is deviating from historical norms. A new report now suggests that the market is evolving into a “staircase-like” bull cycle defined by gradual ￰0￱ Bitcoin Outgrown Parabolic Runs? Traditionally, during bull markets, MVRV tends to stay above this level except in cases of extreme “Black Swan” ￰1￱ trend largely held until 2024, when the introduction of US spot Bitcoin ETFs and a surge in institutional inflows appeared to alter market ￰2￱ year, MVRV dipped under SMA365 twice, but each time rebounded quickly and coincided with Bitcoin reaching new all-time ￰3￱ found that the market is now facing a third test of this ￰4￱ note that today’s US inflation data supports expectations for three Federal Reserve rate cuts before the end of 2025, which is a dovish outlook that could provide the catalyst for MVRV to reclaim higher ￰5￱ history repeats, this could set the stage for fresh highs before ￰6￱ observers suggest that Bitcoin’s bull cycle has pivoted toward a more “staircase-like” structure, with measured advances and corrections, rather than the sharp parabolic rallies seen in past ￰7￱ Signals Healthier Market Structure A similar trend is seen across derivatives as activity in this sector takes center stage in the Bitcoin ￰8￱ fact, Glassnode found that futures and options are helping absorb selling while guiding price ￰9￱ instance, the Volume Delta Bias, which tracks deviations of cumulative volume delta from its 90-day median, rebounded at $108K and indicated broad seller fatigue across platforms such as Binance and ￰10￱ as prices saw a modest uptick, the 3-month annualized futures basis remains under 10%, hinting at steady leverage demand and a market leaning toward accumulation rather than speculative ￰11￱ immediate test lies at $114,000, a level seen as crucial for restoring market confidence and drawing in new ￰12￱ BTC manages to hold this level, it could affirm the strength of this bull phase, while a drop below risks renewed stress for short-term holders, and ultimately exposes downside targets around $108,000 and $93,000, respectively.