Fed Rate Cut Odds Jump to 97% as CPI Comes in Cool at 3% – Bullish for BTC?

The United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.0% year-over-year in September, coming in below economists’ expectations of 3.1% and marking the first time inflation has reached or exceeded 3% since ￰0￱ cooler-than-expected reading came as a shock, with odds of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in October surging to 97% on Polymarket immediately after the data release.) October 24, 2025 Crypto analysts, including Michael van de Poppe, suggested that lower-than-expected inflation readings could drive Bitcoin to a new all-time high within the next 30 ￰1￱ the same time, Global M2 money supply continues to explain more than half of Bitcoin’s price variance, according to VanEck analysis , which they claim is “reaffirming Bitcoin’s role as an anti-money-printing asset”.) October 24, 2025 These declines included an 80.46% drawdown in February 2012, a 73.23% drop around March 2018, a 60.20% correction in December 2019, and a 70.77% plunge around September 2021.

However, these bearish crosses occurred after major bull-market peaks and served as lagging confirmation of trend changes rather than predictive ￰2￱ current price of around $110,000 represents approximately a 12% decline from recent highs around $126,000. This means if a bearish MACD cross materializes, it would confirm the already evident weakness rather than serve as a ￰3￱ monetary policy environment with imminent rate cuts differs substantially from previous bearish MACD periods that occurred during Fed tightening ￰4￱ it stands now, extended consolidation between $95,000 and $120,000 appears most likely in the near term as markets digest competing forces.

However, a breakout above $120,000 on sustained volume could accelerate movement toward the $130,000- $132,000 range by Q1 2026 if macroeconomic conditions remain supportive.