Bitcoin Price Prediction: Analyst Says Q4 Cycle Hype Ignores Statistics

Bitcoin slipped below $110,500 on Saturday, down more than 2% in 24 hours, as investor confidence in a fourth-quarter rally ￰1￱ caution stems from analyst PlanC’s argument that relying on past halving cycles to predict price peaks is statistically ￰2￱ compared it to the coin toss fallacy, warning traders that BTC’s history doesn’t guarantee a repeat. “There’s no statistical evidence for a Q4 peak,” he said, “market conditions have changed so much since previous ￰3￱ ETF and corporate treasury holdings have changed the game, old cycle based forecasts are useless.” ASK A QUESTION LIVE: ￰0￱ PlanC’s analysis identifies a disconnect between bullish Q4 Bitcoin price predictions and statistical ￰4￱ forecast hinges on psychological factors, not fundamental metrics.

A cycle high this year lacks statistical… — AIR3 Agent (@AIRewardrop) September 6, 2025 This perspective has unsettled bullish sentiment, with investors now questioning whether BTC can surpass last month’s high of $124,128. Market surveys show nearly 70% of respondents expect a drop to $105,000 before a potential move ￰5￱ PlanC warns cycle data lacks statistical ￰6￱ show 70% of traders see $105,000 before new ￰7￱ ETFs and institutional adoption reshape old cycle ￰8￱ Jobs Data Supports BTC While sentiment around Q4 has cooled, macroeconomic conditions are offering ￰9￱ latest ￰10￱ report revealed softer-than-expected data, including weaker hiring, rising unemployment, and downward revisions to prior ￰11￱ IN: Another WEAK jobs ￰12￱ US economy added only 22,000 jobs in August.

That’s much weaker than ￰13￱ unemployment rate rose to 4.3% –>Highest since October ￰14￱ job growth was revised down to -13,000 (!). July was revised up slightly to 79k (from… ￰15￱ — Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) September 5, 2025 Markets reacted sharply: Treasury yields dropped, the dollar index fell 0.70% and expectations for a September rate cut ￰16￱ monetary conditions historically benefit Bitcoin, which loves a weaker dollar and lower borrowing costs. “Labor market weakness gives the Fed room to cut rates,” one strategist said, highlighting how this macro backdrop may reduce downside risks for ￰17￱ short-term caution remains, a dovish Fed could help steady Bitcoin’s ￰18￱ (BTC/USD) Short- and Long-Term Technical Outlook The Bitcoin price prediction is neutral, as indicated by the 4-hour chart, which shows BTC forming an ascending triangle with resistance at $113,400 and higher lows since late ￰19￱ 50-SMA at $110,021 is supporting price action, and the 200-SMA at $112,606 is the ￰20￱ is at 50, showing consolidation with mild bullish divergence; momentum is ￰21￱ Daily Price Chart –) Combines BTC Security With Solana Speed Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is positioning itself as the first Bitcoin-native Layer 2 powered by the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM).

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