Bitcoin Could Slip In September Before Q4 Rally, Cycle Data Shows

Bitcoin has bounced back above $112,000 after slipping to $107,000 last week, its lowest mark since ￰0￱ rebound has stirred hope among traders, but analysts remain split on whether the current upswing can hold through ￰1￱ Reading: XRP Faces Crucial Test With ETF Approval Chances Now At 87% September’s Track Record Under Scrutiny Historical data shows September hasn’t been kind to Bitcoin during post-halving ￰2￱ 2017, the coin ended the month with a close to 8% loss, while in 2021 the decline was 7%. Even further back, in 2013, Bitcoin dropped 1.60% in the same ￰3￱ pattern has led some experts to argue that a retest of key technical levels this year is nothing ￰4￱ Cowen, head of ITC Crypto, has repeatedly pointed to the 20-week simple moving average as a ￰5￱ to him, September tends to bring price dips toward that level before a fourth-quarter recovery takes ￰6￱ believes the recent pullback fits the broader rhythm seen in earlier cycles.

Historically, #Bitcoin finds a low in September of the post-halving year, and then bounces off of it into the market cycle top that occurs in ￰7￱ — Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) September 3, 2025 Mixed Views On Cycle Consistency Not everyone is ￰8￱ analysts have raised questions about whether the cycle is breaking from ￰9￱ highlighted that Bitcoin normally records gains in August before falling back in ￰10￱ time, however, the opposite ￰11￱ closed August with a 6.25% ￰12￱ stands in stark contrast to August 2017, when the coin surged 64%, and August 2021, when it gained 15%. Those two robust months were each followed by abrupt September ￰13￱ believe that current data indicate a different configuration could be at work, with macroeconomic parameters such as rate cuts being more pronounced over price ￰14￱ That The Bottom Is Already In Despite the cautious tone from some analysts, there are voices pointing to a brighter near-term outlook, saying the low for September may already be behind ￰15￱ asset opened the month at $108,200, touched a high of $110,100, and fell to $107,000 before ￰16￱ on that sequence, analysts suggest the market may avoid setting new lows this ￰17￱ Reading: XRP Faces Crucial Test With ETF Approval Chances Now At 87% Cowen, however, continues to stress that corrections after setting fresh highs are part of the ￰18￱ points to August’s new record peak as evidence that the market is following the same blueprint as previous ￰19￱ his view, the retreat to the 20-week SMA is less a warning sign than a setup for a strong year-end ￰20￱ the debate over September’s outcome continues, most analysts agree on one point: short-term turbulence is unlikely to alter the long-term ￰21￱ data have made clear that despite temporary dips, Bitcoin is expected to trade far higher in the years ￰22￱ image from Meta, chart from TradingView