Bitcoin Climbs as Economy Cracks — Is it Bullish or Bearish?

Bitcoin (BTC) is about 4% higher than it was a week ago—good news for the digital asset but bad news for the ￰0￱ recent negative tone of the economic data points from last week raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates on Wednesday, making riskier assets such as stocks and bitcoin more attractive. Let's recap the data that backs up that ￰1￱ most important one, the ￰2￱ figures , came out on ￰3￱ headline rate was slightly higher than expected, a sign inflation might be stickier than ￰4￱ that, we had Tuesday's revisions to job ￰5￱ world's largest economy created almost 1 million fewer jobs than reported in the year ended March, the largest downward revision in the country's ￰6￱ figures followed the much-watched monthly jobs report, which was released the previous ￰7￱ ￰8￱ just 22,000 jobs in August, with unemployment rising to 4.3%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics ￰9￱ jobless claims rose 27,000 to 263,000 — the highest since October ￰10￱ inflation and fewer jobs are not great for the U.

S. economy, so it's no surprise that the word "stagflation" is starting to creep back into macroeconomic ￰11￱ this backdrop, bitcoin—considered a risk asset by Wall Street—continued grinding higher, topping $116,000 on Friday and almost closing the CME futures gap at 117,300 from ￰12￱ a surprise, as traders are also bidding up the biggest risk assets: ￰13￱ take a look at the S&P 500 index, which closed at a record for the second day on the hope of a rate ￰14￱ how should traders think about BTC's price chart? To this chart enthusiast, price action remains constructive, with higher lows forming from the September bottom of $107,500. The 200-day moving average has climbed to $102,083, while the Short-Term Holder Realized Price — often used as support in bull markets — rose to a record $109,668.

Bitcoin-linked stocks: A mixed bag However, bitcoin's weekly positive price action didn't help Strategy (MSTR), the largest of the bitcoin treasury companies, whose shares were about flat for the ￰15￱ rivals performed better: MARA Holdings (MARA) 7% and XXI (CEP) 4%. Strategy (MSTR) has underperformed bitcoin year-to-date and continues to hover below its 200-day moving average, currently $355. At Thursday's close of $326, it's testing a key long-term support level seen back in September 2024 and April ￰16￱ company’s mNAV premium has compressed to below 1.5x when accounting for outstanding convertible debt and preferred stock, or roughly 1.3x based solely on equity ￰17￱ stock issuance remains muted, with only $17 million tapped across STRK and STRF this week, meaning that the bulk of at-the-money issuance is still flowing through common ￰18￱ to the company , options are now listed and trading for all four perpetual preferred stocks, a development that could provide additional yield on the ￰19￱ catalysts for crypto stocks?

The CME's FedWatch tool shows traders expect a 25 basis-point U. S. interest-rate cut in September and have priced in a total of three rate cuts by year-end. That's a sign risk sentiment could tilt back toward growth and crypto-linked equities, underlined by the 10-year ￰20￱ briefly breaking below 4% this week.

Still, the dollar index (DXY) continues to hold multiyear support, a potential inflection point worth watching.