Bitcoin 2025 Outlook: Undervalued vs Gold? JPMorgan Weighs In

BitcoinWorld Bitcoin 2025 Outlook: Undervalued vs Gold? JPMorgan Weighs In New Delhi, Aug 30, 2025 — The bitcoin market has entered a quieter, more mature phase in ￰0￱ swings have cooled, institutional demand continues through spot ETF channels, and the narrative is shifting from “speculation” to “portfolio allocation.” A recent JPMorgan note captures this shift, arguing that as bitcoin volatility sinks toward historic lows (~30% from ~60% at the start of 2025), BTC screens undervalued versus gold on a volatility-adjusted ￰1￱ “Undervalued vs Gold” Matters for Bitcoin For years, analysts compared bitcoin to gold as a potential store of value. JPMorgan’s latest framework suggests that with volatility compressing, the risk-adjusted case for BTC strengthens, implying upside to a fair-value band if volatility remains near current ￰2￱ summaries of the bank’s model suggest a scenario up to $126,000 by year-end 2025 under those ￰3￱ not a guarantee, it signals how large allocators may benchmark BTC risk ￰4￱ takeaways Volatility normalization : 60% → ~30% in 2025, a record low, supports larger institutional position ￰5￱ valuation lens : On a volatility-adjusted basis, JPMorgan argues bitcoin screens cheap vs ￰6￱ analysis : Headlines cite a $126K fair-value scenario if conditions ￰7￱ Flows: The ETF Flywheel Since the launch of ￰8￱ bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, the structure has become a primary conduit for mainstream capital.

Day-one trading activity topped $4.6 billion across funds, and 2025 has seen continued net inflows, including $1B in a single day in July and one fund racing to ~$80B in assets under ￰9￱ “ETF flywheel”—simple access, regulated wrappers, and daily liquidity—has deepened the ￰10￱ this supports price discovery Persistent demand via retirement and wealth ￰11￱ spreads & deeper liquidity as market-makers ￰12￱ holdings data that helps analysts track flows. Together, these factors can dampen extreme volatility and support bitcoin as a strategic allocation rather than a ￰13￱ Post-Halving Backdrop The April 2024 halving cut the block subsidy to 3.125 BTC , mechanically slowing net supply issuance.

Historically, halvings have influenced cycle dynamics, though returns vary by macro ￰14￱ the current cycle, the combination of slower issuance and stronger institutional rails (ETFs, custody) is shaping a different—arguably more mature—market ￰15￱ Currents to Watch in H2 2025 Rates & liquidity Lower global rate-volatility typically benefits risk ￰16￱ real yields stabilize or drift lower, the opportunity cost of holding bitcoin vs cash may fall, supporting ￰17￱ clarity Incremental clarity on market structure and token classification can unlock new allocators (pensions, insurers) who require a defined rulebook before ￰18￱ outlets have noted how policy expectations have tracked BTC’s move into six figures in ￰19￱ flows & rebalancing Quarterly and year-end rebalances can create lumps in demand/supply through ETFs, potentially amplifying trend moves when combined with shrinking miner sell pressure ￰20￱ Context: From “Wild Ride” to “Measurable Beta” Several 2025 reports highlight that bitcoin’s realized volatility has cooled substantially , even through drawdowns—suggesting a transition from ultra-speculative swings to “measurable beta” sensitive to macro and ￰21￱ doesn’t eliminate risk; it re-frames ￰22￱ 2025, BTC has traded near—and at times above—six figures, with mainstream coverage documenting surges past $120,000 earlier in the year on institutional adoption momentum.

Bull, Base, and Bear Scenarios (Next 3–6 Months) Bull Case: $115K–$135K Volatility stays ~30% , reinforcing JPMorgan’s relative-value lens vs ￰23￱ net inflows persist; wealth-platform distribution widens ￰24￱ benign (softer inflation prints, stable/lower real yields). This cluster of factors could pull bitcoin toward the upper end of JPMorgan-style fair-value ￰25￱ Case: $95K–$115K Volatility remains contained but flows are ￰26￱ is mixed; regulatory progress ￰27￱ sells modestly into strength; ETF demand ￰28￱ Case: $80K–$95K Risk-off macro (growth scare or sharp yield spike). ETF outflows and stronger ￰29￱ re-expands toward prior ranges, weakening the gold-parity ￰30￱ in this case, structural features (ETF access, post-halving issuance) could help stabilize drawdowns relative to past cycles.

Reminder: These are scenarios, not ￰31￱ assets remain highly volatile and can move rapidly in both ￰32￱ & What Could Invalidate the Thesis Macro shock : A policy surprise or liquidity crunch can hit all risk assets at ￰33￱ setbacks : Adverse rulings or delayed approvals that restrict distribution. On-chain/security events : Major protocol or market-infrastructure ￰34￱ shift : If realized volatility rises again, the “undervalued vs gold” framing ￰35￱ to Read the JPMorgan Framework (Without the Hype) It’s relative, not absolute — The claim addresses risk-adjusted valuation vs gold given volatility, not a guaranteed price path. It’s conditional — The $126K scenario assumes volatility remains subdued and flows supportive.

It’s one lens — ETF flow data, macro liquidity, and halving-era supply dynamics should be tracked alongside it. FAQs: Bitcoin in 2025 Is bitcoin still volatile? Yes—but less than in prior ￰36￱ analyses peg current realized volatility near 30% , a multi-year low, versus ~60% in early ￰37￱ ETFs really matter? Early data says yes: ETFs created an easy on-ramp, large volumes at launch, and billions in net 2025 inflows—supporting liquidity and broader ￰38￱ the 2024 halving help?

Halving reduced new supply to 3.125 BTC per ￰39￱ price impact depends on demand (including ETF flows) and macro ￰40￱ The 2025 bitcoin story is about normalization : lower realized volatility, institutional rails via ETFs, and a mainstream risk framework that increasingly compares BTC with gold. JPMorgan’s lens— undervalued vs gold on a volatility-adjusted basis —doesn’t promise outcomes, but it does explain why allocators are taking BTC seriously as a portfolio ￰41￱ volatility, ETF flows, and macro cues; together, they will likely set the range for the next leg of bitcoin price ￰42￱ post Bitcoin 2025 Outlook: Undervalued vs Gold? JPMorgan Weighs In first appeared on BitcoinWorld and is written by Editorial Team