Bitcoin Options Tilt Bearish Ahead of Friday's Expiry: Crypto Daybook Americas

By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) September has started much like August ended, with low volumes, subdued volatility, and most of the market-moving headlines coming from traditional ￰0￱ rose to $3,560 before easing back, while government bond yields globally retreated from recent ￰1￱ perpetual funding rates, payments designed to keep perpetual futures contracts close to the spot price, have cooled and are now around 6% after hitting double-digit levels ￰2￱ interest, meantime, continues to drop, with just over 720,000 contracts outstanding, denominated in ￰3￱ for publicly listed bitcoin treasury companies, their multiples to net asset value (mNAV) are also extending ￰4￱ (MSTR) now trades at an mNAV of just over 1.55 and Metaplanet (3350) sits at 1.71 after a 7% share-priced ecline in Japan ￰5￱ (NAKA) dropped a further 9% on Wednesday, leaving it down 75% from its all-time high, and now trades at an mNAV of ￰6￱ than $4.5 billion in crypto options are set to expire on Deribit , on Friday, which is also the day of the ￰7￱ payrolls ￰8￱ bitcoin, $3.28 billion in notional value is due, with a max pain point at $112,000 and a put-call ratio of 1.38.

"Open interest is tilted toward puts, with notable clustering around the $105,000 to $110,000 strikes, suggesting downside protection remains a key theme," the derivatives exchange said in a post on ￰9￱ options account for $1.27 billion in notional value, with a put-call ratio of 0.78 and a max pain level of $4,400. Deribit notes "flows are more balanced, but calls are building above $4,500, signaling growing interest in upside optionality". Stay alert! What to Watch Crypto Sept. 4: Polygon will switch its mainnet token to POL from ￰10￱ of MATIC on Ethereum, Polygon zkEVM or centralized exchanges may need to take action.

Sept. 4: Apex Fusion's dedicated EVM-compatible layer-2 blockchain, Nexus, goes ￰11￱ chain, which aims to unite UTXO and EVM ecosystems, integrates with Tenderly’s infrastructure and development toolkit. Sept. 10, 9:15 a. m.: Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan ￰12￱ will talk about digital assets at the CoinDesk: Policy & Regulation Conference in ￰13￱ Sept. 4, 8:15 a. m.: Automatic Data Processing (ADP) releases August U.

S. private-sector employment ￰14￱ Change Est. 68K vs. Prev. 104K Sept. 4, 9:30 a. m.: S&P Global releases August Canada data on manufacturing and services ￰15￱ PMI Prev. 48.7 Services PMI Prev. 49.3 Sept. 4, 9:45 a.

m.: S&P Global releases (final) August ￰16￱ on manufacturing and services ￰17￱ PMI Est. 55.4 vs. Prev. 55.1 Services PMI Est. 55.4 vs. Prev. 55.7 Sept. 4, 10 a. m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases August ￰18￱ sector ￰19￱ PMI Est.

Est. 51 vs. Prev. 50.1 Sept. 4, 1 p. m.: Uruguay's National Institute of Statistics releases August inflation ￰20￱ Rate YoY Prev. 4.53% Sept. 4, 3 p. m.: Colombia's National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) releases August producer price inflation ￰21￱ YoY Prev. 2.2% Sept. 4, evening: President Donald Trump will host a private dinner in the newly renovated White House Rose Garden for about two dozen top tech and business leaders, including Mark Zuckerberg, Tim Cook, Bill Gates and Sam Altman.

Sept. 5, 8 a. m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases July producer price inflation ￰22￱ MoM Prev. -1.25% PPI YoY Prev. 3.24% Sept. 5, 8:30 a. m.: Statistics Canada releases August employment ￰23￱ Rate Est. 7% vs. Prev. 6.9% Employment Change Est. 7.5K vs.

Prev. -40.8K Sept. 5, 8:30 a. m.: The ￰24￱ of Labor Statistics releases August employment ￰25￱ Payrolls Est. 75K vs. Prev. 73K Unemployment Rate Est. 4.3% vs. Prev. 4.2% Government Payrolls Prev. -10K Manufacturing Payrolls Est. -5K vs.

Prev. -11K Sept. 5: S&P 500 Rebalance update released after market ￰26￱ (MSTR) is one of the companies being considered for inclusion in the index. Sept. 5, 7 p. m.: Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics releases August consumer price inflation ￰27￱ Rate MoM Prev. 0.28% Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 4.9% Sept. 5, 7 p. m.: El Salvador's Statistics and Census Office releases August consumer price inflation ￰28￱ Rate MoM Prev. 0.33% Inflation Rate YoY Prev. -0.14% Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) Sept. 4: Cango ( CANG ), post-market Sept. 9: GameStop ( GME ), post-market, $0.19 Token Events Governance votes & calls Arbitrum DAO is voting on upgrading Arbitrum One and Nova to ArbOS 50 Dia , adding support for Ethereum’s Fusaka fork, new EIPs, bug fixes and a native mint/burn feature (for Orbit chains only).

Voting ends ￰29￱ DAO is voting on deploying Uniswap v3 on Ronin with $1M in RON and $500K in UNI incentives to make it the chain’s primary decentralized ￰30￱ ends ￰31￱ DAO is voting on a proposal to migrate Nethermind’s ~7,000 Ethereum validators to infrastructure operated by Twinstake, a staking provider co-founded by ￰32￱ ends ￰33￱ DAO is voting to establish “DUNI,” a Wyoming DUNA as its legal entity, preserving decentralized governance while enabling off-chain operations and liability protections, with $16.5M in UNI for legal/tax budgets and $75K in UNI for ￰34￱ ends ￰35￱ DAO is voting on an updated Unichain-USDS growth plan to accelerate adoption through performance-based incentives and DAO-guided ￰36￱ proposal introduces minimum KPIs, a “No result, no reward” ￰37￱ ends ￰38￱ Sept. 5: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.27% of its circulating supply worth $12.43 million.

Sept. 11: Aptos (APT) to unlock 2.2% of its circulating supply worth $48.41 million. Sept. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 5.98% of its circulating supply worth $15.33 million. Sept. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.18% of its circulating supply worth $15.89 million. Sept. 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $46.02 ￰39￱ Launches Sept. 4: Gata (GATA) to be listed on Binance Alpha, MEXC, Bitget, Gate.

io, and others. Sept. 4: Tradoor (TRADOOR) to be listed on Binance Alpha, Bitget, MEXC and ￰40￱ The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation Conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory ￰41￱ is ￰42￱ code CDB15 for 15% off your ￰43￱ 2 of 2: CONF3RENCE (Dortmund, Germany) Day 2 of 3: bitcoin++ (Istanbul) Day 1 of 2: ETHWarsaw 2025 (Warsaw) Day 1 of 3: Taipei Blockchain Week (Taiwan) Sept. 5: Bitcoin Indonesia Conference 2025 (Bali) Sept. 9-10: Fintech Week London 2025 Sept. 9-10: WOW Summit Hong Kong 2025 Sept. 9-13: Boston Blockchain Week (Quincy, Massachusetts) Token Talk By Oliver Knight Donald Trump-linked DeFi token word liberty financial (WLFI) slumped to a record low $0.174 on Thursday as the token's popularity begins to fade just days after its trading ￰44￱ 21% daily drawdown can be attributed to a number of factors, notably the fact that some token holders are still in profit after purchasing during the token ￰45￱ holders will be tempted to lock in their profits as hype around the project ￰46￱ trader made $250 million after buying $15 million during the sale, another lost $2.2 million after going long on WLFI ￰47￱ WLFI is linked to the U.

S. president, in terms of development and innovation, there's nothing obvious to differentiate it from the thousands of other DeFi-themed ￰48￱ a result traders may be inclined to jump ship until they see development of the project. "WLFI team, stop sleeping and start taking ￰49￱ community is already angry, at least don’t lose the last remaining investors," one holder wrote on ￰50￱ chart looks eerily similar to the TRUMP memecoin that was released in ￰51￱ a period of initial upside, TRUMP lost 89% of its value and daily volume dwindled from $39 billion on opening day to just $210 million in the past 24 ￰52￱ an attempt to quell the selling pressure, the project revealed on X that WLFI held by the team would not be sold on the open market, stating that every token in the treasury would be subject to governance and not the team's ￰53￱ tweet failed to stem the decline, and prices continued to tumble shortly ￰54￱ Positioning BTC derivatives positioning has cooled, activity is still there however, with momentum and directional conviction looking muted rather than ￰55￱ interest in perpetual futures across major venues has dropped from the recent peak near $33 billion to about $30 ￰56￱ the same time, the three-month annualized basis keeps compressing to roughly 5%–6% across Binance, OKX and Deribit, leaving the carry trade only marginally ￰57￱ data is sending mixed ￰58￱ the upward-sloping implied volatility curve suggests the market expects long-term volatility to be higher than short-term, other metrics point to a more immediate bearish outlook.

Specifically, the 25 delta skew continues to be either flat or slightly negative, with traders paying a premium for puts over calls to gain downside ￰59￱ short-term bearish sentiment is contradicted by 24-hour put call volume, with calls (63%) dominating options contracts for ￰60￱ rate APRs across major perpetual swap venues are little changed around 4%-6% annualized, according to Velo ￰61￱ is the only exchange with a rate higher than 6% for BTC, reflecting a pocket of stronger long-term interest relative to other exchanges. Overall, funding dynamics suggest a stable market with isolated signs of froth, rather than broad directional ￰62￱ data shows $225 million in 24-hour liquidations, with a 50-50 split between longs and ￰63￱ ($65million), BTC ($46 million) and others ($19 million) were the leaders in terms of notional ￰64￱ Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $110,250 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in case of a price ￰65￱ Movements BTC is down 1.06% from 4 ￰66￱ Wednesday at $111,024.03 (24hrs: -0.39%) ETH is down 1.58% at 4,395.87 (24hrs: +0.84%) CoinDesk 20 is down 1.28% at 4,035.47 (24hrs: -0.24%) Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 2 bps at 2.87% BTC funding rate is at 0.0038% (4.1873% annualized) on Binance DXY is up 0.15% at 98.29 Gold futures are down 1.01% at $3,598.80 Silver futures are down 1.23% at $41.03 Nikkei 225 closed up 1.53% at 42,580.27 Hang Seng closed down 1.12% at 25,058.51 FTSE is up 0.19% at 9,194.99 Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,326.92 DJIA closed on Wednesday unchanged at 45,271.23 S&P 500 closed up 0.51% at 6,448.26 Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.02% at 21,497.73 S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.47% at 28,751.36 S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.11% at 2,756.91 U.

S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1.6 bps at 4.195% E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.17% at 6,468.25 E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.24% at 23,505.75 E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 45,308.00 Bitcoin Stats BTC Dominance: 58.44% (+0/13%) Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03961 (-0.58%) Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 990 EH/s Hashprice (spot): $54.54 Total fees: 6.28 BTC / $701,021 CME Futures Open Interest: 134,255 BTC BTC priced in gold: 31.3 ￰67￱ vs gold market cap: 8.77% Technical Analysis Altcoin dominance (excluding the top 10) has rebounded from a bottom just under 6% and is now testing key resistance near 8%. A decisive break above this level could signal sustained outperformance of alts relative to bitcoin However, the move so far has been driven by a select number of tokens rather than a broad-based “alt season.” Even if resistance is broken, this trend is likely to remain concentrated, not a wholesale surge across the entire altcoin ￰68￱ Equities Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $302.31 (-0.41%), unchanged in pre-market Circle (CRCL): closed at $118.46 (-1.4%), +0.82% at $119.43 Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $24.39 (+0.95%), +1.15% at $24.67 Bullish (BLSH): closed at $54.26 (-12.53%), -1.68% at $53.35 MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.89 (-1.06%), -1.13% at $15.71 Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.45 (-4.54%), -0.3% at $13.41 Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $13.58 (-3%) CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.44 (-2.07%), -0.42% at $9.40 CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $30.70 (-2.97%) Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $24.33 (-1.86%) Crypto Treasury Companies Strategy (MSTR): closed at $330.26 (-3.33%), -0.17% at $329.71 Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $29.01 (-1.23%) SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $16.82 (-0.94%), -2.79% at $16.35 Upexi (UPXI): closed at $6.63 (-3.77%), +1.66% at $6.74 Mei Pharma (MEIP): closed at $4.53 (-6.6%) ETF Flows Spot BTC ETFs Daily net flows: $300.5 million Cumulative net flows: $54.85 billion Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million Spot ETH ETFs Daily net flows: -$38.2 million Cumulative net flows: $13.36 billion Total ETH holdings ~6.54 million) on a six-week lead — shorter than the more commonly used 10-week lead — shows a striking correlation since the second ￰69￱ this relationship persists, the model points to a potential BTC bottom around Sept. 11, followed by a resumption of the ￰70￱ You Were Sleeping Trump Takes Tariffs Fight to ￰71￱ Court (Reuters): The Justice Department is appealing a ruling that Trump exceeded his authority under a 1977 emergency law, with judges citing the major questions doctrine requiring Congress to authorize actions of broad economic ￰72￱ Outshines in 2025 as Bitcoin-Gold Ratio Eyes Q4 Breakout (CoinDesk): Gold’s rally, fueled by falling bond yields in major economies, underscores its benchmark role, while chart patterns on the bitcoin-gold ratio point to a potential breakout by ￰73￱ Hedging Gets Expensive Again Ahead of US Jobs Report (Bloomberg): Traders are piling into bets on big currency swings, especially in the euro-dollar rate, as Friday’s report could affect the Fed's interest-rate path with political and fiscal risks worldwide adding ￰74￱ Hackers are Now Using Ethereum Smart Contracts to Mask Malware Payloads (CoinDesk): Researchers discovered smart contracts used to disguise malware in two packages distributed via NPM, an open-source tool used by developers to find, install and manage reusable ￰75￱ Brings $700M RLUSD Stablecoin to Africa, Trials Extreme Weather Insurances (CoinDesk): The firm partnered with Chipper Cash, VALR and Yellow Card to expand RLUSD in Africa, while Kenya pilots the use of the stablecoin in escrow smart contracts for drought and rainfall ￰76￱ Investors Count on Trump Tariff Revenues to Rein In ￰77￱ (Financial Times): Investors are banking on tariff revenues, which the Congressional Budget Office estimates will raise $4 trillion over 10 years, roughly matching the cost of Trump’s tax cuts over the same ￰78￱ the Ether Saksham Diwan contributed to this newsletter.