Why Bitcoin’s (BTC) 4-Year Cycle Points to a $50K Crash by 2026

Bitcoin hit a new all-time high above $124,000 in ￰0￱ momentum has since cooled and the asset experienced intense volatile price action in recent ￰1￱ present Bitcoin is trading around $110,958 in a notable pullback from its peak

while leaving investors debating on what’s ￰2￱ Wedson believes that Bitcoin’s fate may hinge on whether its four-year cycles remain ￰3￱ even predicted a looming bear market with a $50,000 ￰4￱ for Impact Joao Wedson founder and CEO of crypto analytics platform Alphractal has warned that Bitcoin could enter a bear market as early as next month if its historic four-year price cycles remain ￰5￱ to his tweet this would mark the end of the current bullish phase and potentially drive BTC to a capitulation bottom around $50,000 by late ￰6￱ timing aligns with fractal patterns stretching back more than a decade

in which Bitcoin has consistently peaked roughly 18 months after halving events before retracing ￰7￱ Wedson’s analysis is grounded in historical cycles today’s environment is hugely dominated by factors such as ETF inflows institutional demand and unprecedented global liquidity

all of which could disrupt these ￰8￱ instances show that investors often underestimate the persistence of cycles which leads to disappointment when they assume this time is ￰9￱ said that some market experts may counter his forecast and argue that BTC may still climb past $140,000 before any prolonged downturn particularly if momentum from Asia-US liquidity corridors continues to fuel ￰10￱ point to external factors such as Elon Musk’s cryptic suggestion that US political turbulence could spark volatility in Q4 2025 and influence the market beyond the four-year ￰11￱ Over Bitcoin’s Q4 Fate Quinten Francois

host of CoinCompass pushed back against the prediction saying he isn’t convinced the “top in Q4” narrative is ￰12￱ to Francois while a local top in Q4 is possible

the broader cycle is likely to extend further as the liquidity cycle itself has not yet ￰13￱ comments suggest that despite short-term volatility Bitcoin’s overall bullish trajectory could continue beyond 2025.