US government shutdown expected to last into mid-october

The federal government remains closed for business after lawmakers on Capitol Hill failed to break their stalemate over funding, with financial markets now signaling the impasse could stretch into ￰0￱ to Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market, the current forecast implies the stoppage will last 12 days, up sharply in recent days as negotiations on Capitol Hill have ￰1￱ activity on Polymarket shows most participants believe federal operations won’t resume until October 15 or later, an outcome currently priced at 38 percent likelihood. Meanwhile, 23% of traders think a deal will emerge between October 6 and 9, while 22 percent anticipate an agreement in the October 10-14 ￰2￱ 14% expect Congress to reach terms in the next few days, specifically between October 3 and 5.