S&P 500 closed at a record 6,502.08 after weak job data fueled bets on a September Fed rate cut

The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Thursday, ending the day at 6,502, up 0.83%, after a late-afternoon rally powered stocks across the ￰0￱ Street traders pushed through weaker-than-expected job numbers from the private sector and placed big bets that Friday’s government jobs data will open the door for a Federal Reserve rate ￰1￱ to Bloomberg, traders want a number that justifies easing without triggering panic about a ￰2￱ Nasdaq Composite gained 0.98% to finish at 21,707.69, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 350.06 points, or 0.77%, at 45,621.29. The decision came hours after the ADP private payrolls report showed just 54,000 new jobs for August , well below the 75,000 economists were expecting, and the number was also down from the revised 106,000 in ￰3￱ of tanking the market, the weak result lit up traders who now see it as soft enough for the Fed to act, but not bad enough to scream ￰4￱ rate cut bets explode after ADP report Markets responded ￰5￱ raised the odds of a rate cut on September 17 to 97%, based on CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

They’re pricing in the idea that the Fed now has enough cover to make a ￰6￱ moved higher across sectors on the idea that weak data means looser policy, the scenario traders have been waiting on for ￰7￱ United States is running on surging debt, rising deficits, and growing interference in the central bank’s ￰8￱ all that noise, the ￰9￱ market has held its ground, with the 10-year yield having dropped more than a third of a point this year, standing in contrast to higher yields in the UK, France, and Japan, where investors have pulled out amid fiscal concerns. 10-year ￰10￱ yields have dropped over 0.33% this year, beating every other major bond ￰11￱ 30-year ￰12￱ only went up about 0.125% in 2025, way less than the 0.5% spike in the UK, 0.75% in France, and a full 1.0% in ￰13￱ Europe and Asia struggled with rising debt fears, ￰14￱ stayed ￰15￱ volatility has also been fading.

A key measure of Treasury market swings is now sitting close to its three-year low, showing that traders aren’t panicking… yet. That’s despite all the pressure Washington is putting on the Fed to keep rates low and borrowing ￰16￱ Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, said, “The bond market has been calm.” He added that even with heavy fiscal overhang and political meddling, the ￰17￱ “does stand out as remarkably stable.” Yardeni is known for coining the term “bond vigilantes” in the 1980s to describe investors who punish reckless fiscal policy by dumping government ￰18￱ right now, he says that group is nowhere to be seen in ￰19￱ market braces for QE pressure from Trump team Still, there are signs the calm might not ￰20￱ 10-year note recently dipped below 4.17%, the first time since May, just as more data hint at slower job ￰21￱ Europe on pause and Japan looking to raise rates, the pressure is building in the ￰22￱ do ￰23￱ Jen, chief executive at Eurizon SLJ Capital, predicts that: “The next pressure may be on QE, and if I were in the Trump administration, I would just put pressure on the Fed to consider re-adopting it.” William Dudley, former New York Fed President, told Bloomberg TV, “The markets are still pretty comfortable about ￰24￱ a little too comfortable, given the fact of the president trying so hard to influence monetary ￰25￱ how this plays out, there’s a long way to go.” Pimco’s Michael Cudzil added that the Fed could also start reinvesting maturing mortgage-backed securities as a way to cool off housing ￰26￱ now, the Fed is doing the opposite, letting up to $5 billion in Treasuries and $35 billion in mortgage debt mature each month without reinvesting, a policy known as quantitative ￰27￱ warned that any Fed move to buy bonds or change Treasury issuance might only buy ￰28￱ Congress starts cutting spending or raising taxes, the ￰29￱ lose the patience of ￰30￱ when that happens, it won’t be a press release, it’ll show up in the market.

“Bond vigilantes are in Europe and Japan,” Yardeni said. “They are out there, just not ￰31￱ could change pretty quickly.” Your crypto news deserves attention - KEY Difference Wire puts you on 250+ top sites