CryptoQuant chief executive Ki Young Ju has revived a cycle-top debate with a fresh model-based call that puts Bitcoin’s upper bound at roughly $208,000 per 0 CryptoQuant’s “Price Prediction Based on Realized Cap” dashboard on X, Ki wrote: “Nobody cares about my calls anymore, but just saying I’m bullish on 1 much capital inflows 2 too much.” The post reprises his data-driven commentary from early 2024, when he argued that “#Bitcoin could reach $112K this year driven by ETF inflows, worst-case $55K.” That framework came conspicuously close: Bitcoin went on to register a 2024 high above $108,000, narrowly under his $112,000 3 Bitcoin Price Could Top Above $208,000 The chart Ki published on September 18 visualizes three time series derived from CryptoQuant’s realized-cap methodology: the spot price of BTC (black), a model “ceiling_price” (red) and a model “floor_price” (green).
As of 17 September 2025 (UTC), the panel annotated a spot marker at $116,453, a ceiling at $208,310 and a floor at $41,662, with the dashboard showing it was “last run” two hours 4 other words, the model currently locates Bitcoin well above its inferred floor and still materially below the band it treats as an overvaluation 5 Reading: Bitcoin Holds $117,500 On Retail Support While Whales Stay Quiet – Cause For Concern? The implication of Ki’s share is not a guarantee, but a statement that, given prevailing on-chain capital inflows and the realized-cap structure, the market has room—by this metric—to extend toward that $208,000 upper 6 cap values the network by summing each coin at the price it last moved on-chain rather than the current market price, a construction that tends to track investor cost basis over time.
CryptoQuant’s dashboard projects dynamic “floor” and “ceiling” bands around spots that, historically, have framed multi-year expansions and contractions. Ki’s renewed bullishness ties those bands to what he describes as surging demand pressure visible in settlement flows and ETF-linked capital migration onto the 7 continuity with his February 2024 note is explicit: then he cited exchange-traded product inflows as the dominant driver of an advance toward six figures; now he points to “too much capital inflows onchain” while circulating a model that places the ceiling near $208,000. Related Reading: $1 Million Bitcoin Is Coming: Arthur Hayes Says Fed Just Pulled The Trigger It is noteworthy that Ki is not presenting an open-ended forecast but rather a model snapshot that updates with market 8 same dashboard that prints a $208,310 ceiling today also marks the risk floor at $41,662, underscoring the spread of outcomes the realized-cap approach 9 track record with the $112,000 “this year” guidance—followed by a print just above $108,000—will inevitably color how traders receive the new 10 the framing remains analytical: a data readout of where Bitcoin sits relative to its realized-value envelope after a year and a half defined by US spot ETF adoption and deepening institutional 11 now, Ki’s message is simple and blunt—“I’m bullish on Bitcoin”—and anchored in the same on-chain lens he used 10 months ahead of the 2024 12 the market ultimately approaches the model’s $208,000 ceiling will depend on how those on-chain inflows evolve against macro liquidity, ETF and corporate treasury demand as well as miners’ supply 13 his chart makes clear is that, by CryptoQuant’s realized-cap bands, Bitcoin has not yet tested the top of its statistical range in this 14 press time, BTC traded at $116,173.
Featured image created with DALL. E, chart from 15
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