Bitcoin Heads into Historically Bullish October After Third-Best September On Record

Bitcoin closed September with a 5.16% gain, its third-best September on record since 2013, according to Coinglass ￰0￱ performance comes as traders turn their attention to October, which has historically been the asset’s strongest ￰1￱ 2013, bitcoin has averaged 14.4% gains in October, with a median return of 10.8%. Out of 13 Octobers in that span, 10 ended in the green and only three closed ￰2￱ track record makes October the most statistically favorable month for the asset, with gains often clustering in the second ￰3￱ seasonality is a hallmark of financial markets, with markets tending to recede at the beginning of May before a spike in ￰4￱ is based on the belief that equity markets underperform during the summer due to lower trading volumes, reduced institutional activity, and historical returns data.

Historically, ￰5￱ markets have shown weaker performance from May through October than from November through April, leading to the strategy becoming a seasonal rule-of-thumb for some ￰6￱ also shows recurring seasonal patterns, often influenced by macro cycles, institutional flows, and retail ￰7￱ such, past trading patterns show the first week of October can be choppy or negative, before stronger upside takes hold later in the ￰8￱ several years, bitcoin posted double-digit surges after Oct. 15, even when early price action was ￰9￱ backdrop this year is similar. Bitcoin’s mixed performance through 2025 — including drawdowns in spring and uneven summer trading — contrasts with the resilience of recent weeks, adding weight to the idea that September’s strength may be a precursor to late-year momentum.

Still, seasonality offers probabilities, not ￰10￱ catalysts, from ￰11￱ prints to shifts in risk appetite, have historically shaped October’s ￰12￱ with September’s performance ranking near the top and the odds favoring bulls in October, traders will be watching closely to see if history rhymes once again.