Bets on Polymarket Show Bitcoin (BTC) $200K Odds Are Slimmer Than Alien Discovery

Investor sentiment flipped sharply bearish as Bitcoin (BTC) and major crypto assets succumbed to macroeconomic pressures. Polymarket’s latest tweet has injected a fresh dose of skepticism into the Bitcoin ￰0￱ decentralized prediction market humorously noted that the odds of aliens being confirmed this year (6%) slightly surpass Bitcoin hitting $200,000 (5%). Yet beneath the levity, Polymarket’s data highlighted a more serious near-term ￰1￱ Panic Polymarket is seeing a 52% chance that Bitcoin could crash below $100,000 this ￰2￱ is in line with the broader market unease, as crypto analyst Ted Pillow recently stated that Bitcoin has already lost its critical $108,000 support level, which has left a minimal buffer until $101,000-$102,000.

Pillow stated that a reclaim of $110,000 could trigger a short-term bounce, but otherwise, traders should brace for more pain before relief ￰3￱ to the cautionary sentiment, Doctor Profit, another popular market analyst, called the current environment the “early phase of the bear market,” which is seeing intense deceptive mini-rallies and sharp downside ￰4￱ predicted the macro bottom would eventually settle between $60,000-$70,000. According to Doctor Profit, traders should expect increasing selling pressure, with the Fear & Greed Index likely reaching extreme fear levels in the coming days, further backed by the red numbers across the ￰5￱ such, these factors paint a picture of a market navigating a precarious balance.

“Remember, dead cat bounces are the biggest enemy for us ￰6￱ them or ignore them, but don’t fight them.” Defensive Stance Macro uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on Bitcoin, and Glassnode revealed a major change in sentiment across markets and ￰7￱ the past week, gold has outperformed Bitcoin by more than 20%, reclaiming part of its “store-of-value” ￰8￱ was indicative of investors’ growing caution toward ￰9￱ caution has spilled over into the options market. Short-dated BTC volatility spiked sharply overnight, while front-end options traded around 50 vol as traders paid up for immediate downside ￰10￱ skew still behaves like a macro asset, favoring puts – downside protection remains pricier than upside exposure amidst defensive ￰11￱ market is balanced, as seen with some accounts rolling protection lower, others selling volatility on the dip, and a few selectively buying cheap calls.

Overall, the tone is cautious but not ￰12￱ volatility metrics confirm this defensiveness. Put-heavy skew, bid wing vols, and strong demand for tail hedges indicate traders remain focused on downside risk. Year-end upside exposure has cooled as downside vol continues to ￰13￱ those willing to take risks, selling puts or put spreads to finance November topside remains a viable strategy.