Analysts see BTC price struggling through 2025 as long-term holders offload

The price of Bitcoin may struggle to recover through the end of 2025 as long-term holders continue offloading their positions, according to on-chain data and market ￰1￱ investors are hopeful the recent breakout above $110,000 would mean the king coin is on its way back to October-start highs, but data suggest that long-term Bitcoin investors, referred to as “ OG whales ,” are selling enough coins to cause significant resistance in the market. On-chain market researcher James Check believes the recent slowdown in Bitcoin’s momentum has grown from persistent sell-side activity among whales. “The sheer volume of sell-side pressure from existing Bitcoin holders is still not widely appreciated, but it has been the source of resistance,” Check said.

“Not manipulation, not paper Bitcoin, not suppression, just good old-fashioned ￰2￱ it won’t become irrelevant.” Thousands of BTC sold in market consolidation phase According to Check’s latest report, citing data from Checkonchain, long-term Bitcoin holders have sold over 240,000 BTC over the past 30 days, the largest wave of profit-taking since January ￰3￱ sheer volume of sell-side pressure from existing Bitcoin holders is **still** not widely appreciated, but it has been THE source of ￰4￱ manipulation, not paper Bitcoin, not ￰5￱ good old fashioned sellers. Also, it won't become irrelevant. ￰0￱ ￰6￱ — _Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ (@_Checkmatey_) October 19, 2025 The average age of spent coins, a metric that tracks the typical age of Bitcoin being moved on-chain, has risen from 26 days at the start of 2023 to around 100 days in October this ￰7￱ implies that older coins that had been dormant for months or even years are now being reactivated and ￰8￱ this view, Check shared another Checkonchain chart of Bitcoin’s revived supply, the total dollar value of coins being moved after a long period of inactivity, ticking upwards to its second-highest level ever to reach roughly $2.9 billion per ￰9￱ 47% of this revived supply originated from coins last active six months to one year ago, which could mean holders who had accumulated during the 2024–2025 cycle are now exiting the ￰10￱ is structural, not profit taking James Check gave his theory in support of Reflexivity Research co-founder William Clemente III, who had posted on X late Sunday, saying the current market weakness is more of a structural transition rather than manipulation or systemic fatigue.

“After some thinking this weekend, I believe the last year of relative weakness for BTC has mostly been a transfer of supply from OGs to ￰11￱ can see this in on-chain ￰12￱ dynamic will be mostly irrelevant in coming years, just as everyone is focused on BTC’s relative weakness,” Clemente ￰13￱ in the crypto community have also insinuated that institutional funds and family offices have been absorbing much of the supply, leaving older Bitcoin ￰14￱ slow redistribution, however, has weighed on price momentum in the short term. “Bitcoin feels a bit stuck right now, and it’s not just ￰15￱ analysts think the real reason is because the OG holders are finally ￰16￱ are the people who’ve held their coins for years and are now quietly passing them to new buyers, mostly from traditional ￰17￱ steady selling creates resistance, and that’s probably why the price isn’t moving much,” a Coinex creator ￰18￱ price rebounds, value still range-bound Bitcoin has started this business week on a positive note, walking past the $110,000 level to reach $111,292, after a 3.7% daily ￰19￱ largest crypto by market cap had a volatile phase last week, in which prices fell to a low of $103,602, before bouncing back after US President Donald Trump toned down tariff ￰20￱ the rebound, Bitcoin and major altcoins struggled to sustain momentum through the ￰21￱ crypto closed the week above $109,000, maintaining key support but failing to establish a clear ￰22￱ to data from CryptoQuant, Binance’s estimated leverage ratio, the amount of borrowed capital used by traders, declined throughout ￰23￱ lower leverage caused a pullback in speculative positioning, buoyed by the mid-month ￰24￱ estimated leverage ratio.