Polymarket puts 34% chance Bitcoin ends October below $100K, >$130K bets under 10%

Polymarket traders are now giving a 34% probability that Bitcoin finishes October under $100,000, while bets on a rally past $130,000 are barely scraping 10%. This deep split in sentiment comes after a volatile start to what is support to be a bullish month, with Bitcoin struggling to find footing after a steep plunge triggered by escalating trade ￰0￱ beloved ‘Uptober’ kicked off with strength as buyers rushed into Bitcoin while uncertainty loomed over a possible ￰1￱ ￰2￱ last Friday out of anywhere, everything ￰3￱ fell hard (from $121,000 down to $104,000) after President Donald Trump last out at China’s Xi Jnping and vowed 100% tariffs on all Chinese ￰4￱ single headline nuked the rally and sent crypto markets ￰5￱ shorts $192M as Bitcoin crashes to $104K Bitcoin’s collapse came just as gold was breaking past $4,300 to hit fresh all-time ￰6￱ the yellow metal surged more than 17% in the last month, Bitcoin has fallen 8%, unable to claw back Friday’s ￰7￱ Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat, explained the shift in capital, saying: “Right now, capital is clearly favoring gold due to its momentum and reduced volatility profile.” He added that central banks are acting as structural buyers, giving gold a backstop that Bitcoin currently ￰8￱ still expects investors to rotate into Bitcoin eventually, but for now, the capital is riding gold’s ￰9￱ Thursday, Bitcoin was trading near $108,000, but the earlier collapse exposed deeper ￰10￱ a market note, Ed Yardeni, a longtime Wall Street strategist, broke down the chaos: “The crypto derivatives ecosystem exacerbated Bitcoin’s recent fall,” he wrote.

“During the abrupt drop, liquidity dried up, with over $19 billion in liquidations across crypto futures and leveraged positions.” And the whales were ￰11￱ wallet scooped up nearly $192 million by shorting Bitcoin before the ￰12￱ same wallet made another bearish move late Sunday, adding even more weight on the ￰13￱ stick to $165K calls as gold passes $4,379 Bulls had reasons to be hopeful at the start of ￰14￱ the past 12 years, Bitcoin has gone up in 10 of them during this month, based on Compass Point Research data. Plus, it had just hit a fresh high above $126,000. Alongside metals, it was part of the so-called “debasement trade”—a play against fiat currencies losing ￰15￱ that trade has now flipped, with gold stealing the ￰16￱ all that, banks are still holding onto bullish ￰17￱ expects Bitcoin to reach $165,000 by ￰18￱ projects $133,000 in that same timeframe, and $181,000 by ￰19￱ on the charts, none of that optimism has shown up yet.

meanwhile, gold keeps making new all-time ￰20￱ precious metal topped $4,379 yesterday before easing slightly back to $4,350. Year-to-date, gold is up up over 50%, which is more than double Bitcoin’s 20% return in ￰21￱ gap made Ed call gold the “new bitcoin,” claiming it’s the better safe haven and predicting that the precious metal will hit $5,000 in 2026, and even $10,000 before the decade ￰22￱ raised its gold forecasts, now predicting an average price of $3,355 in 2025, and $3,950 for 2026, pointing to strong buying from central banks and growing macro ￰23￱ any case, the market-moving influence of a worsening trade conflict between China and America makes it harder to declare the sell-off a turning point for crypto or a peak bitcoin ￰24￱ the dispute over critical minerals restrictions leads to a massive escalation in tariffs come Nov. 1, investors — crypto and otherwise — are in for more ￰25￱ bitcoin and its lesser altcoin peers don’t have the corporate earnings to cushion a deteriorating macroeconomic ￰26￱ $50 free to trade crypto when you sign up to Bybit now