Only 37% of Americans trust Powell as economic confidence in the Fed hits record low

Only 37% of Americans say they trust Jerome Powell to make the right calls for the economy, according to Gallup. That’s ￰0￱ even four in ten ￰1￱ Fed Chair, who is in his second term, just posted his second-worst approval rating ￰2￱ this isn’t just a ￰3￱ only time confidence in the position was this low in the last two decades was in 2014, when Janet Yellen was running the ￰4￱ in 2020, Powell had 58%. Now, barely anyone’s buying what he’s ￰5￱ Federal Reserve isn’t just dealing with inflation and unemployment anymore. It’s dealing with a public that no longer believes it has a clue what it’s ￰6￱ the Jackson Hole symposium, Powell stepped up to deliver what’s his final headline speech as chair, just a the labor market is slowing down, which usually calls for interest rate ￰7￱ inflation is still alive and kicking, and the Fed doesn’t want to fuel ￰8￱ said an “adjustment” might be necessary, which, in Fed-speak, is code for: we’re about to ￰9￱ prepares cuts as markets brace for political pressure The markets weren’t ready for ￰10￱ were expecting another boring ￰11￱ they got was Powell hinting loud and clear that rate cuts are coming, probably next month, and maybe again in the two meetings after ￰12￱ dollar tanked, bonds surged, and stocks rebounded at the end of a rough ￰13￱ there’s a risk baked into that ￰14￱ August job report doesn’t come out until September’s first ￰15￱ hiring picks up again, the Fed will have already slashed rates into a strong job market while inflation is still above ￰16￱ would be a misstep, according to Bank of America analysts, who warned that the Fed “would risk a policy error if it were to cut rates” too soon.

Meanwhile, minutes after Powell’s speech, Trump put a target on Lisa Cook, one of the Fed’s board ￰17￱ his red “Trump was right about everything” cap, he told reporters he’d fire her if she didn’t quit over claims about her mortgage ￰18￱ said she won’t be “bullied,” but that doesn’t mean anything under this administration. Trump’s grudge against Powell is personal, as he’s called him a “numbskull,” “an idiot,” and “a fool” more than once for not slashing rates earlier and harder. Now, Powell might finally be cutting, but Trump isn’t impressed. He’s already placed Stephen Miran, an ally who once argued that presidents should be able to fire central bank officials whenever they want, into a temporary Fed ￰19￱ Trump’s already replaced the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics with a ￰20￱ independence weakens as Trump allies step in The Fed is supposed to operate outside of ￰21￱ by the time next year’s Jackson Hole meeting happens, there’s every reason to believe the Fed will look very different.

A new, Trump-approved chair will likely be running ￰22￱ question then becomes: will that chair follow data, or follow orders? That’s not some hypothetical ￰23￱ now, bond markets are flashing warning signs. Long-term Treasurys are performing worse than shorter-term debt, suggesting investors think the Fed will be pressured to keep interest rates too low, not because it’s good policy, but because it’s good ￰24￱ borrowing stays cheap, Trump can keep spending big without raising taxes. That’s the real game ￰25￱ Powell’s last stand wasn’t ￰26￱ promised to fight inflation “come what may,” but also said he’s watching the labor market closely because it can unravel fast.

That’s classic Fed balancing; cautious, data-driven, no sudden ￰27￱ once Powell is out, that style may ￰28￱ the next chair tries to speak up or resist, it might just signal to investors that something’s ￰29￱ could be seen as either healthy debate or proof that the chair has lost ￰30￱ way, reading the Fed will get harder, not ￰31￱ the stakes will be even ￰32￱ you're reading this, you’re already ￰33￱ there with our newsletter .