Gold has gained 37% year-to-date, nearly four times the S&P 500’s return despite a strong rally

Gold is running laps around Wall Street’s ￰0￱ S&P 500 has surged 1,650 points in under five months, one of the strongest runs in ￰1￱ according to fresh numbers from Apollo, gold is up +37% year-to-date , nearly four times the return of the stock ￰2￱ this isn’t some weird ￰3￱ the start of 2023, gold has climbed almost 100%, while the S&P 500 gained about 67% in the same window. That’s happening while the world screams about AI and calls it the biggest tech leap since the ￰4￱ even that hype hasn’t lifted stocks beyond ￰5￱ question isn’t why the metal’s up, it’s why everything else is still trailing it. Historically, gold only pops when things go south.

It’s the panic ￰6￱ investors get scared, they leave stocks and grab gold, just like they used to do with ￰7￱ something broke that ￰8￱ moves with stocks as inflation and debt climb together Since 2020, the old patterns have ￰9￱ and the S&P 500 are now moving ￰10￱ 2024, the correlation between the two hit 0.91, an all-time ￰11￱ means both are climbing at the same time. Normally, that doesn’t ￰12￱ change is tied to how markets are reading inflation and debt. Long-term inflation is being baked into asset prices, and the government’s spending binge is pumping the Treasury market full of new ￰13￱ the ￰14￱ approaches $2 trillion, Washington is issuing more bonds to keep the lights ￰15￱ bond flood is dragging prices down.

Bonds, once a trusted safe zone, are now ￰16￱ investors are ditching them and choosing gold ￰17￱ demand has pushed central banks into ￰18￱ now hold more gold than ￰19￱ for the first time since ￰20￱ shift isn’t random. It’s a signal that even the most conservative institutions are moving out of debt and into ￰21￱ debt overhang also explains why term premiums are ￰22￱ term premium, the extra payment investors want for holding long-term debt, has jumped to 0.75%, the highest level since ￰23￱ as those risks climb, the demand for gold keeps ￰24￱ metal saw a buying surge in late April and early May, right as the term premium began ￰25￱ banks pile into gold as inflation breaks Fed targets Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the next 5 to 10 years are ￰26￱ no longer believe the Fed can deliver its 2% inflation ￰27￱ has turned gold from a hedge into a core ￰28￱ as interest rates get cut around the world to fight job losses and weak economies, inflation keeps ￰29￱ banks are trying to spend their way out of the ￰30￱ result?

More deficit, more bonds, and more demand for ￰31￱ the tech front, equities did get a small ￰32￱ Wednesday, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.6% after a ￰33￱ handed Alphabet a mixed decision in its antitrust ￰34￱ Amit Mehta ruled that while Google can keep running its Chrome browser, it must stop making exclusive search deals and has to open up access to its search ￰35￱ helped Alphabet dodge a full-blown ￰36￱ of Google’s parent company jumped 8% after the ￰37￱ decision was seen as a win for the company, mostly because it avoided being forced to split up or shut down parts of its ￰38￱ leaned on the argument that AI has created more options for users, making Google’s dominance less ￰39￱ even with that legal break, and even with AI headlines on full blast, stocks can’t keep up with ￰40￱ seen where it ￰41￱ in Cryptopolitan Research and reach crypto’s sharpest investors and builders.