Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on September 17, but Treasury yields are rising instead of falling

Wall Street is pricing in a Fed rate cut in exactly 15 days, but the market isn’t ￰0￱ are backing away from risk, and bond yields are doing the exact opposite of what the textbooks ￰1￱ of falling, the 30-year Treasury yield is climbing fast, now pushing toward 5%, a level not seen since the middle of the 2008 financial ￰2￱ now see 50 basis points of rate cuts as the base case for 2025. There’s even a 34% chance of 75 basis points of cuts happening this ￰3￱ none of it is making investors ￰4￱ mood is ￰5￱ yields are ￰6￱ system is ￰7￱ the central bank prepares to ease, the market is hiking its own rates in ￰8￱ market pushes back as inflation and debt explode Over the past five weeks, the ￰9￱ has issued over $200 billion in new ￰10￱ investors are walking ￰11￱ usual appetite for long-dated debt just isn’t ￰12￱ want more in return.

That’s seen in the term premiums on 10-year notes, now at the highest level since ￰13￱ premiums measure the extra payoff buyers demand for holding longer debt, and right now, that premium is flashing ￰14￱ inflation is above 3% again and heading ￰15￱ that rate, the dollar loses over 25% of its value in the next ten years. It’s already lost about 25% since 2020, compounding pressure on ￰16￱ hasn’t slowed Washington’s ￰17￱ more debt they create, the more the market ￰18￱ the Fed? It’s losing control of the entire yield ￰19￱ United Kingdom is already dealing with the ￰20￱ Bank of England cut rates five times in one year, blaming a weak labor ￰21￱ the result is ￰22￱ UK’s 30-year bond yield just moved above 5.70%, the highest since April ￰23￱ of softening borrowing costs, their cuts sent yields to a 27-year ￰24￱ rejected the central bank’s move and demanded higher compensation for ￰25￱ exact same playbook is now playing out in the ￰26￱ is feeling it ￰27￱ 30-year Japanese Government Bond yield now sits above 3.20%, more than 30 times higher than where it was in ￰28￱ global bond market is sending a message: central banks can’t buy their way out of structural debt ￰29￱ rallies, stocks bleed, and stagflation takes hold One asset isn’t ￰30￱ is charging higher with near-perfect alignment to long-term ￰31￱ bond yields move up, so does ￰32￱ now, it’s made ￰33￱ hit $3,600 per ounce for the first time.

That’s a +33% gain year-to-date, more than 3.5x the return of the S&P ￰34￱ 1-day price chart Traders aren’t running to stocks. They’re dumping ￰35￱ Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 249.07 points, closing at 45,295.81. The S&P 500 lost 0.69% to end at 6,415.54, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.82%, closing at 21,279.63. Big names ￰36￱ dropped 2%, while Amazon and Apple slid about 1% ￰37￱ season is part of ￰38￱ is historically brutal for equities, and traders are taking profits after a hot ￰39￱ was ￰40￱ S&P 500 climbed almost 2%, broke 6,500 for the first time, and hit five new all-time highs, bringing the 2025 total to ￰41￱ now, all eyes are on Friday’s jobs ￰42￱ will likely be the final data point the Fed reviews before its rate ￰43￱ unemployment rate for 16 to 24-year-olds has hit 10%, and that’s likely what the Fed will cite when it justifies the ￰44￱ the timing is ￰45￱ is climbing, the labor market is weakening, and economic growth is slowing.

That’s stagflation, and it’s now a ￰46￱ Difference Wire helps crypto brands break through and dominate headlines fast