Expect gold to hit $5,000 if Fed loses independence and investors dump Treasuries

Goldman Sachs is warning that gold could surge to $5,000 an ounce if the Federal Reserve loses its independence and investors pull just a fraction of their money from ￰0￱ into ￰1￱ to Goldman analysts, including Samantha Dart, the scenario would trigger a surge in inflation, collapse long-term bonds and equities, and utterly weaken the dollar’s position as the world’s reserve currency. “But in contrast, gold is a store of value that doesn’t rely on institutional trust,” Samantha ￰2￱ analysts ran many models and outlined three potential ￰3￱ is a base case of $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, second is a more severe “tail-risk” setup that puts the price near $4,500, and third (the most extreme scenario) is where just 1% of privately held ￰4￱ , roughly $850 billion, moves into gold, sending the price close to $5,000.

At press time, the spot price of gold is around $3,540, down slightly from a recent record of $3,578, per data from ￰5￱ moves against Fed, investors pile into metals Behind the scenes, the Federal Reserve is under ￰6￱ Donald Trump, now back in the White House, has been working to tighten his grip on the central ￰7￱ latest move is an effort to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook , triggering concern across financial markets about the future of monetary ￰8￱ Goldman Sachs report didn’t detail these developments but dropped at a time when Trump’s pressure campaign is ￰9￱ Central Bank President Christine Lagarde also weighed in, saying a loss of independence for the Fed would pose a “serious danger” to the global ￰10￱ remarks added to fears that political interference could distort decision-making inside the most powerful central bank in the ￰11￱ has already risen more than 33% this year, outperforming nearly every other major ￰12￱ to the report, titled “Diversify Into Commodities, Especially Gold,” the metal is Goldman’s top pick for long-term exposure.

“We estimate that if 1% of the privately owned ￰13￱ market were to flow into gold, the gold price would rise to nearly $5,000 an ounce, assuming everything else constant,” the analysts ￰14￱ still lags, but upside potential remains While gold has been dominating headlines , silver has rallied 40% year-to-date, but it still trades well below its 2011 high of $50 per ￰15￱ gold/silver ratio, which currently stands at 86, is another red ￰16￱ when silver last hit $50, the ratio was closer to ￰17￱ gap suggests silver might have more room to ￰18￱ indicators support both ￰19￱ Relative Strength Index (RSI) for gold is above 68, and for silver, it’s also high, but both are still below the 83 and 88 thresholds hit during past bull ￰20￱ upcoming Fed decision is being watched closely as the next major trigger that could send these levels even ￰21￱ trends are also fueling ￰22￱ interest rates, a weaker U.

S. dollar, and massive global debt are pushing investors toward assets that don’t depend on ￰23￱ banks expected to cut rates, capital is moving away from cash and bonds into what investors see as safer, longer-term ￰24￱ factor is ￰25￱ silver, clearing the $50 line could bring in tons of retail buyers and short-term traders, since that level has acted like a ceiling for literally over a ￰26￱ it will likely trigger a new phase of speculative ￰27￱ of now, the Bybit x FXStreet TradFi Report gives gold a medium-term target of $4,000 by year-end, a 14% gain from current prices. Silver, if it breaks that $50 level, could quickly become the center of ￰28￱ your project in front of crypto’s top minds?

Feature it in our next industry report, where data meets impact.