Raoul Pal Predicts 4 Billion Crypto Users by 2030, $100T Market Cap — Is It Realistic?

Raoul Pal, a former Goldman Sachs executive and co-founder of Real Vision, claims that crypto adoption could reach 4 billion users by 2030, driving market capitalization to $100 ￰1￱ argues that crypto wallets are expanding at twice the rate of internet IP addresses during the 1990s, creating what he calls a comparable adoption ￰2￱ prediction would require crypto to jump from today’s $4 trillion market cap to $100 trillion by 2032-2034, powered by two forces he identifies as adoption and monetary debasement.) August 31, 2025 His macroeconomic thesis finds support in current monetary conditions, as the U. S. M2 money supply reached $22.12 trillion in July 2025, reflecting 4.8% year-over-year ￰3￱ ￰4￱ debt has climbed to $37 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion for the first time, creating conditions that historically favor alternative stores of ￰5￱ Reality Check: Can Crypto Reach $100 Trillion?

Institutional adoption has accelerated with the introduction of Bitcoin spot ETFs, which have attracted over $54.75 billion in net inflows since their approval in January ￰6￱ have also emerged as a key driver of adoption, settling $6.3 trillion in payments over the 12 months to February 2025, representing 15% of global retail cross-border payments. JPMorgan’s blockchain platform processes $2 billion daily through its JPM Coin system, while major banks, including Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, explore stablecoin offerings. Yet, reaching 4 billion users would require crypto to serve half the world’s population, a massive leap from current estimates, which range from 500 million to 659 million ￰7￱ context, achieving $100 trillion market capitalization would approach the size of global equity markets, currently valued at approximately $110 ￰8￱ executive warns stablecoin interest payments could drain bank deposits like the 1980s crisis amid GENIUS Act loophole concerns. #Stablecoin #Banks ￰0￱ — ￰9￱ (@cryptonews) August 25, 2025 Meanwhile, banking industry groups have warned that yield-bearing stablecoins could trigger deposit flight similar to the 1980s money market fund crisis, when money market funds grew from $4 billion to $235 billion in seven ￰10￱ experts have argued that user experience and privacy concerns are the primary factors preventing institutional participation, citing complex interfaces and seed phrase management as the main obstacles to mainstream adoption, with many calling for account abstraction ￰11￱ advocates, such as Petro Golovko, also warn that public blockchain transparency creates fundamental adoption barriers by exposing financial data that institutions and individuals prefer to keep private.

Moreover, regulatory developments have also contributed to this growth, with the EU’s MiCA regulation introducing comprehensive oversight, while the ￰12￱ GENIUS Act establishes a framework for the stablecoin industry’s ￰13￱ has advised followers to maintain long-term positions rather than worry about short-term volatility, stating that “it will all play out with or without your endless fretting.”