Red August, Green Signals: Why Bitcoin’s Structure Remains Unshaken

August’s weak close has revived worries that Bitcoin’s downturn could extend into September, a period that often proved unfavourable for the asset. However, recent on-chain indicators suggest that underlying market strength remains intact despite recent bouts of volatility. Bitcoin’s Next Leg Up One key indicator, Delta Cap, currently stands at $739.4 billion, with a corresponding price of $108.9K. Derived from the difference between Realized Cap and Average Cap, Delta Cap has historically functioned as a long-term valuation floor during major market ￰0￱ BTC trading comfortably above this steadily rising line, analysts at CryptoQuant point to signs of strong capital inflows and renewed conviction among long-term investors, even as short-term spot prices face corrections.

Meanwhile, institutional demand appears to be ￰1￱ Coinbase Premium Gap, which measures the price difference between US exchange Coinbase and global counterpart Binance, currently reflects a positive spread of +11.6. This premium means that US institutions are willing to pay more for Bitcoin exposure, a trend that in past cycles has led to extended bullish moves as institutional buying pressure drives price discovery. Together, these indicators depict a constructive market setup: Bitcoin consolidating above the $100K threshold with both institutional support and a steadily climbing valuation ￰2￱ than signaling weakness, current corrections may represent opportunities for accumulation within a strong structural ￰3￱ Rekt Fencer also pushed back against the prevailing September gloom as he tweeted that a major Bitcoin dump is unlikely this time ￰4￱ to him, BTC has already “front-ran” the seasonal sell-off, which means that recent August weakness effectively priced in the downside ￰5￱ parallels to 2017, he noted that the market followed a similar trajectory back then, where early corrections shook out bearish sentiment before a strong rally took ￰6￱ argues that history may be repeating itself, with bears once again misjudging the setup and potentially missing the next upward ￰7￱ Storm for Rally Analysts have recently weighed down on the slowdown and observed that this period could be setting the stage for a much larger rally in fall 2025.

Long-term holding patterns, for one, indicate that the BTC market is in Phase 3 of its cycle, which tends to feature lengthening uptrends and softer corrections compared to earlier ￰8￱ cycle has been shaped by new factors, including spot ETFs, rising institutional involvement, and even government-level ￰9￱ the same time, capital rotation into altcoins has periodically slowed Bitcoin’s momentum, a trend seen more prominently now than during the 2023-2024 run. Still, macro catalysts remain favorable: a potential September rate cut and possible approval of altcoin ETFs in October could provide renewed fuel.