Bitcoin Price Analysis: Is BTC Set to Break Down Below $100K?

Bitcoin has slipped beneath several important support levels after setting a new all-time high earlier this ￰0￱ the current market setup, the short-term outlook points toward a higher chance of further ￰1￱ Shayan The Daily Chart On the daily timeframe, the market has been steadily moving lower, breaking beneath the major descending channel, the $110K support area, and the 100-day moving average that aligned with ￰2￱ these critical levels increases the likelihood of a deeper decline, with the next downside targets sitting around the $104K fair value gap or even the 200-day moving average near the psychological $100K ￰3￱ the RSI is also holding below 50, momentum clearly favors the bears, making continued downside the most probable ￰4￱ 4-Hour Chart On the 4-hour chart, the market is in a clear downtrend, forming consistent lower highs and lows within a tight descending ￰5￱ $117K and $110K supports have both been broken decisively and retested, pointing toward the fair value gap around $104K as the next likely ￰6￱ RSI is sitting below 50, reinforcing bearish momentum, while the price is edging closer to the Fibonacci golden ￰7￱ lower boundary of this zone, at the 78.6% retracement level, aligns with the $104K fair value gap, making it a strong target and potential rebound ￰8￱ the market reacts to this level will be critical in shaping the direction for the weeks ￰9￱ Analysis Exchange Reserves This chart illustrates Bitcoin’s exchange reserves and its ￰10￱ purple line shows the reserves held across all exchanges, while the white line tracks the USD price of ￰11￱ stands out is the persistent decline in exchange reserves since the beginning of 2024, which has continued to this ￰12￱ means fewer units are being held on exchanges, a sign that investors and institutions are withdrawing their BTC to cold storage rather than keeping them ready for ￰13￱ other words, the circulating supply available for immediate trading is ￰14￱ a supply and demand perspective, this trend is highly ￰15￱ exchange reserves drop, the supply of Bitcoin that can be quickly sold on the market becomes ￰16￱ demand holds steady or increases, this imbalance supports higher prices over the long run, as we’ve seen with Bitcoin pushing to new all-time highs.

However, short-term price corrections like the recent pullback are still possible when demand weakens or when macroeconomic conditions shift.